With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.
Author
- Adrian Beaumont
Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A national YouGov poll , conducted April 17-22 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the April 11-15 YouGov poll . This is Labor's biggest lead in YouGov this term.
Primary votes were 33.5% Labor (up 0.5), 31% Coalition (down two), 14% Greens (up one), 10.5% One Nation (up 3.5), 2% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 5% independents (down four) and 4% others (up one). In this poll, the Coalition has lost votes on its right to One Nation.
Using 2022 election preference flows would give Labor about a 55-45 lead from these primary votes. YouGov is applying preference flows from its previous MRP poll that was conducted from late February to late March .
However, recent polls that use respondent preferences suggest the gap in the Coalition's favour between respondent and 2022 preference flows has dropped to nearly zero. This means YouGov's current preference assumptions may be too pro-Coalition. The Poll Bludger expects another YouGov MRP poll this weekend.
While the gap between Morgan and YouGov's headline voting intentions is two points, Morgan is using respondent preferences for all their polls, while YouGov uses respondent preferences from its last MRP poll. By 2022 election flows, the gap is only 0.5 points.
Here is the poll graph of Labor's two-party vote in national polls. If YouGov and Morgan are right, Labor is likely headed for a landslide re-election. The only recent poll that has had the Coalition in a decent position was the April 14-16 Freshwater poll.
Both the YouGov and Morgan polls were taken after candidate nominations were declared on April 11. Both are now using seat-specific candidate lists in their polls. Support for independents fell as many seats don't have viable independent candidates.
Anthony Albanese's net approval in YouGov slid one point to -7, with 49% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. Peter Dutton's net approval slumped eight points to a record low in this poll of -18. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 50-35 (48-38 previously).
Labor takes double-digit lead in Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll , conducted April 14-20 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor a 55.5-44.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the April 7-13 Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 34.5% Labor (up 2.5), 34% Coalition (up 0.5), 14.5% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady), 0.5% Trumpet of Patriots (down 0.5), 7.5% independents (down 2.5) and 3% others (steady). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 55.5-44.5, a one-point gain for Labor.
By 48-34, voters thought Australia was headed in the wrong direction (48.5-34.5 previously). Morgan's consumer confidence index increased 1.3 points to 85.5.
Exit polls of early voting in 19 seats encouraging for Labor
The News Corp tabloids on Thursday released results of exit polls of pre-poll voters from the first two days of in-person early voting (Tuesday and Wednesday). A total of 4,000 voters were surveyed across 19 seats (just over 200 per seat). The swings in these polls were compared against all votes in these seats in 2022, not just the early votes.
In Australia, Labor does better on election day booths than in pre-poll voting booths. ABC election analyst Antony Green said Labor's two-party vote was 2.8 points higher at election day booths compared with pre-poll votes in 2022.
I also believe relatively few young people will vote very early based on US experience, so the demographic mix of these early votes will skew older and less Greens-friendly than the final early vote.
Comparing these very early exit polls with the final vote from pre-poll centres in 2022, The Poll Bludger had Labor gaining primary vote swings in all seats that are likely to be Labor vs Coalition contests, while the Coalition was down except in Victoria. The Greens also dropped, but not in the Brisbane Greens-held seats.
If these very early pre-poll votes skew older than the final pre-poll votes and these exit polls are representative of people who have already voted, the Coalition is in big trouble.
Newspoll aggregate data from late March to mid-April
The Australian on Tuesday released aggregate data for the four Newspolls conducted during the election campaign. These polls were conducted from late March to mid-April from an overall sample of 5,033.
The Poll Bludger said Labor led by 52-48 in New South Wales , a two-point gain for Labor since the January to March Newspoll aggregate. Labor led by 53-47 in Victoria, a two-point gain for Labor. The Coalition led by 54-46 in Queensland, a three-point gain for Labor. Labor led by an unchanged 54-46 in Western Australia. Labor led by 55-45 in South Australia, a five-point gain for Labor.
The Poll Bludger's poll data has Labor leading with the university-educated by 55-45, a three-point gain for Labor. Among those with a TAFE/Technical education, there was a 50-50 tie, a two-point gain for Labor. Among those without tertiary education, there was a 50-50 tie, a two-point gain for Labor.
The Poll Bludger's BludgerTrack now gives Labor a national 53.0-47.0 lead, a 0.9% swing to Labor since the 2022 election. In NSW, Labor leads by 53.4-46.6, a 2.0% swing to Labor. In Victoria, Labor leads by 52.8-47.2, a 2.0% swing to the Coalition. In Queensland, the Coalition leads by 52.5-47.5, a 1.5% swing to Labor. In WA, Labor leads by 57.6-42.4, a 2.6% swing to Labor. In SA, Labor leads by 56.8-43.2, a 2.8% swing to Labor.
DemosAU poll of Greens-held Brisbane seats
The Poll Bludger reported Tuesday that DemosAU collectively polled the three Greens-held Brisbane seats (Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith) in mid-April from a sample of 1,087. Labor led the Liberal National Party by 56-44 while the Greens led by 55-45. The LNP had 36% of the primary vote across these three seats, with the Greens and Labor tied at 29%.
In 2022, primary votes across these seats were 35.7% LNP, 30.7% Greens and 26.2% Labor. The small swing to Labor and against the Greens implies Labor would gain Brisbane from the Greens, with the Greens retaining Ryan and Griffith.
This poll is far more plausible than the JWS polls that had huge swings to the LNP in all these seats and the Greens a distant third in Brisbane and Ryan.
NSW Resolve poll: Labor gains from low
A New South Wales state Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the late March and mid-April federal Resolve polls from a sample of 1,123, gave the Coalition 36% of the primary vote (down two since February), Labor 33% (up four), the Greens 11% (down three), independents 14% (up three) and others 6% (down two).
No two-party estimate was provided, but The Poll Bludger said Labor had about a 52-48 lead. Labor incumbent Chris Minns led the Liberals' Mark Speakman as preferred premier by 40-15 (35-14 previously).
Asked about NSW government services, by 42-27 voters thought public schools good, by 43-32 they thought public transport good and by 37-36 they thought road infrastructure good. But public hospitals were thought poor by 42-38.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
