Let's start with a review of summer. Much of the country experienced prolonged heat throughout summer, with warmer than average days and nights across most of the mainland. Some northern areas were cooler than usual with persistent tropical systems bringing extensive cloud and rainfall during the summer.
Summer rainfall has been variable, with widespread dry conditions in January followed by a wet February in many areas. Overall though, summer has been wetter than usual across most of northern Australia and for parts of the interior. In the south and east, summer rainfall has been below average.
Persistent and heavy rainfall in the north was driven by enhanced tropical activity during the season, including 4 tropical cyclones. A slow moving tropical low brought rainfall across much of the interior and south-east leading to widespread flooding. The Todd River flowed in Alice Springs and there was significant damage to road and rail systems.
Root zone soil moisture is currently above to very much above average over most of the country following recent rainfall. While soil moisture in the south-east is now mostly average or above average the recent rainfall has had little impact on long-term rainfall deficiencies across parts of South Australia, Victoria and into southern New South Wales.
Combined, water storages across Australia are around 67% full. While some storages in the south are below 50% full, many storages in the north and east are at, or near capacity.
For the southern Murray-Darling Basin, a major agricultural region, the overall storage level is currently 49%, around 14% lower than this time last year.
In February, streamflow has been below average across the south. For some scattered areas in the south-east, it has been the lowest on record. Streamflow has been average to above average for most of the north.
Now let's look ahead at the long-range forecast
Rainfall in March is likely to be above average across much of the north, indicating that the heightened tropical activity we've seen during this wet season may continue. For much of the south, there's no strong signal, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rain.
Across the season as a whole - southern parts of Australia are likely to have below average autumn rainfall, indicating a strengthening dry signal from April and potentially a dry start to the southern cool season.
Autumn days and nights are likely to be warmer than usual for most of Australia, except for some areas of the north. Late season heat is still possible in early autumn. There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures for much of the southern half of Australia.
The bushfire outlook for autumn, issued by Australia's fire agencies, shows an increased fire risk for areas in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, despite recent rainfall potentially suppressing fire weather in the short-term. Dangerous and destructive fires can still occur during autumn, even in areas with normal bushfire risk.
Forecasts for autumn indicate warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are likely for much of the region, especially off southern Australia. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is likely to be neutral during autumn.
This autumn, we're likely to see:
- below average rainfall for most southern areas
- above average rainfall for parts of the north
- warmer than usual days and nights across most of the country, and
- an increased fire risk for parts of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
Visit the Bureau's website to stay up to date with the latest long-range forecasts. Bye for now.
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the months ahead.
