Drier than average conditions are likely across most areas south of the tropics.
Days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for much of the country.
January was warmer than average across most of Australia. In contrast, parts of Queensland were cooler than average, resulting from persistent tropical rain and increased cloud cover.
January rainfall was below average for much of the central and southern areas of Australia. Tropical activity enhanced rainfall across much of Queensland and the far north, while Ex Tropical Cyclone Luana led to above average rainfall in eastern parts of Western Australia.
Root-zone soil moisture is currently above average across most of northern Australia and parts of the south and west following rainfall in recent weeks. Soils remain drier than average for large parts of the south, the east and the west.
Looking ahead, the rainfall forecast for March to May currently shows drier than average conditions are likely for most areas south of the tropics.
For February to April, near-median to high streamflow is likely along the east coast and sites across northern Australia. Low flows are likely for sites across the south and east.
Daytime temperatures for March to May are likely to be above average across most of Australia except for inland parts of the tropical north.
Overnight temperatures are also likely to be above average for most areas.
Sea surface temperatures for March to May are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the globe, including around parts of Australia.
Most models forecast neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean by the end of summer - neither La Niña nor El Niño.
We update our long-range forecast regularly.
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