First, let's look at recent conditions.
Spring days and nights were warmer than average for much of the country, with heatwaves impacting northern, central and eastern areas.
Spring temperatures were close to average in parts of the south.
Spring rainfall has been below average for parts of the south-east mainland.
However for most of the country, rainfall has been average to above average.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina developed to the north-east of Darwin on the 19th of November, the first tropical cyclone of the season.
After crossing the Cobourg Peninsula, Fina passed within 50 km of Darwin on the 22nd of November as a severe Category 3 system, bringing damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
Root zone soil moisture remains average to above average across much of the north and west of the country, and in parts of the south including Tasmania.
Below average soil moisture has emerged across much of New South Wales and in some south-western parts of Queensland.
Overall, Australia's total water storage is currently around 69%.
Many storages in the north and east are at or near capacity; while some storages in the south and east are less than half full.
In November, streamflow was average to above average for most of northern Australia, western Tasmania, south-west Western Australia, and scattered locations along the east coast.
Streamflow was below average in some inland parts of the eastern seaboard, and across much of eastern Victoria and north-eastern Tasmania.
Looking ahead, the long-range forecast for summer shows:
- Below average rainfall is likely for parts of the west, and inland parts of the east.
- Along much of the east coast and for South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania, there's no clear signal, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
- As we approach summer, the days and nights are getting warmer and heatwaves can become more frequent.
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across most of the country.
- There's an increased chance of unusually warm days across much of northern Australia and parts of the south-east.
- There's an increased chance of unusually warm nights across much of the country, especially in northern Australia.
Summer is the peak season for bushfires across much of southern Australia. There's an increased risk of fire this summer for parts of central northern New South Wales, much of southern Victoria, and regions in the west and south of Western Australia. Communities are urged to prepare and review their bushfire and emergency plans and to monitor local conditions, even in regions with normal bushfire risk.
Sea surface temperatures are forecast to remain above average in the Australian region, especially to our east.
Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole is decaying, and near its end. La Niña is underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, this event is likely to be weak and short lived.
Our long-range forecast accounts for all influences from the oceans and atmosphere, including La Niña, and the long-term warming trend in our oceans.
In summary, our forecast for summer shows: below average rainfall is likely in the west and eastern inland, equal chances of above or below average rainfall for much of the east coast and southern states, warmer than average days and nights with an increased risk of extreme heat, and an increased risk of bushfires for parts of New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia.
Find long-range forecasts on the Bureau's website. Explore the latest maps for the weeks and months ahead and select your location for more details.
Bye for now.
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.
