Supermarket shoppers across the UK are all too familiar with empty shelves when disruption strikes. Whether it was the panic buying of COVID-19, floods affecting deliveries or strikes in distribution centres, the fragility of supply chains has affected most of us in recent years.
In response to this, a team of researchers has developed a new way to help retailers keep goods moving during crises - at the same time as reducing their costs and lowering their carbon footprint.
The study, led by Dr Arijit De from The University of Manchester's Alliance Manchester Business School, looked at how distribution networks can adapt when part of the system goes down. Retail supply chains rely on a mix of highly reliable but expensive distribution centres, and cheaper, more vulnerable ones that are more likely to suffer disruption. When one of these vulnerable hubs fails, the impact can cascade through the network, causing shortages, emergency transport costs and spikes in carbon emissions.
To tackle this, the team created a two-stage analytical model. First, they used game theory to understand when warehouses are likely to cooperate and share stock with one another during a disruption. Then, they built an optimisation model that works out how to move goods most efficiently across the network, not only saving money but also cutting fuel use and carbon emissions.
The model was then tested with real-world data from a UK retailer. The results showed that smarter "goods sharing" strategies - where reliable warehouses temporarily cover for disrupted ones - can significantly lower costs while keeping customer demand satisfied. When environmental factors such as fuel consumption and emissions are included, the savings are even greater.
"Events like COVID, floods or strikes show just how vulnerable supply chains are to disruption, said Dr De. "Our model gives companies a practical way to plan ahead, ensuring business continuity during crises while reducing their environmental impact. It's about designing supply chains that are both resilient and sustainable."
The research also found that greener, optimised redistribution strategies could reduce fuel costs by up to 30% in disruption scenarios compared to traditional approaches. That means lower emissions, lower costs for retailers, and ultimately fewer shortages for shoppers.
The study highlights practical lessons for UK supermarkets and other retailers facing uncertain times. With climate change expected to increase extreme weather events and global supply chains still under strain, building networks that can flex under pressure will be vital.
The paper, Proactive Logistics-Redistribution Strategic Planning in Response to Facility Disruptions under Contingencies, was co-authored with colleagues from the Indian Institute of Management, National Taiwan University and the University of Liverpool, and is published in the European Journal of Operational Research.
