In March 2025, the Philippines' former president Rodrigo Duterte was arrested by police at Manila airport, on the orders of the International Criminal Court. Suspected of crimes against humanity, he is now in custody in The Hague.
At the time of his arrest, he was more popular than ever: 80 percent of Filipinos supported him, up from around 35 percent when he was elected president in 2016.
"Duterte's popularity can seem baffling in the West. In his so‑called war on drugs, for which he was responsible, up to 10,000 people were killed without anyone being held accountable," says Arild Engelsen Ruud, professor of South Asia Studies at the University of Oslo.
Free elections, but serious human rights violations
According to Ruud, who is soon to conclude a research project on leaders in South and Southeast Asia, Duterte had traits shared by several leaders in the region.
In the 1960s, 70s and 80s, politics was dominated by deeply corrupt, violent and openly repressive leaders such as Ceaușescu in Romania and Pinochet in Chile. Now, much of the third wave of autocratisation (where power gradually concentrates in the hands of one person) is happening in what are called "flawed democracies". These are countries with free or fairly free elections, but where civil rights abuses can be extensive.
In South and Southeast Asia, almost all the large countries fall into this category.
"Most leaders here are democratically elected. True, there can be elements of electoral manipulation and voter influence, but the popularity of leaders like Duterte, Modi in India and Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka is quite real."
Manufactured support on social media
Rather than relying on mass imprisonment and overt censorship, these leaders prefer to persuade-often through methods such as harassment, bribery of opponents, and withholding information, Ruud explains. Critical media outlets are acquired. Many use PR agencies, and social media is used intensively to control the narrative.
After Duterte was elected president of the Philippines in 2016, it emerged that he had hired thousands of "keyboard warriors" to share his posts, amplify his support and silence opponents (The New Republic).
He presented himself as a macho politician willing to kill to tackle crime. At the same time, he shared personal stories-both about his many girlfriends and his family life. He used street language and slang, cultivating a down‑to‑earth image.
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Law and order can feel more important than civil rights
But his popularity wasn't just about image, Ruud points out. A woman he once met in a Manila slum told him about a local boy who had fallen in with the wrong crowd.
"One evening the boy was dragged out of his home and shot in the head. He lay there bleeding to death, and no one was punished. She had known him since he was little and thought it was terrible. Yet she said: 'But the streets are safer now.'"
What Western observers consider abhorrent can be felt as necessary elsewhere, Ruud argues.
"People may care more about maintaining law and order or securing basic services than about ensuring that everyone's rights are protected."
Perhaps the biggest driver of Duterte's popularity, the researcher says, was the infrastructure he built.
"Today we see leaders in countries like India and Turkey doing the same. They cut through bureaucracy and slow democratic processes to build bridges, airports, metro systems-things people can see and take pride in."
A monthly radio show offering advice to the young
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi doesn't have a saintly reputation either. Yet he has been in office for over 11 years.
"He is regularly re‑elected in entirely normal elections. He will probably remain in power for another three to four years."
Modi was previously Chief Minister of the state of Gujarat, where he held power during a massacre of Muslims in 2011 (The Guardian). He was barred from entering the USA and the UK for several years-bans that were lifted when he became prime minister in 2014.
According to Ruud, Modi has at least four distinct media personas: a Hindu nationalist making Hinduism a national ideology; a strongman who cuts through bureaucracy and obstacles; an ardent champion of business; and a grandfatherly figure who gives advice to young people in a monthly radio programme. He also writes poetry.
"None of this is accidental. Modi grasped early how social media works and was among the first to use it actively in an Indian election campaign. Today he is on all platforms and has over 100 million followers on X. He also has his own app."
How much money is spent on this is unclear, but it is substantial, Ruud says. Large agencies, influencers and local operators on smaller contracts are all involved.
A former general recast as a dancing grandfather
Prabowo Subianto, who became president of Indonesia in autumn 2024, has successfully built an entirely new media persona, despite his past as a general under the authoritarian Suharto regime. Before the election he was reborn as "cute Prabowo," a dancing, cat‑loving grandfather figure boosted by thousands of young supporters on TikTok.
But a few months after the vote, the cats and dancing receded, and major structural changes to the military were made-moves in an authoritarian direction. Indonesia's youth began to protest.
What the future holds is uncertain.
"If a leader's popularity rests on a narrative constructed on social media, it is also fragile. In recent years we've seen this in places like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, where leaders ultimately had to flee," says Ruud.
They were still strong leaders, he adds. But they pursued brutal policies.
"When leaders like Duterte and Modi have maintained their popularity, it's partly because they have kept tight control of the narrative, and partly because that narrative resonates with people. Modi also has a strong organisational apparatus with branches worldwide, including in Norway."
