James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
2:00 P.M. EST
MS. PSAKI: Hi, everyone.
Q Happy Friday.
MS. PSAKI: Happy Friday. So, we are joined by our National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, today. He will give a brief update and then take some questions from all of you.
And with that, I will turn it over to Jake.
MR. SULLIVAN: Good afternoon. Thanks, everybody, for giving me the opportunity to be here. I'd like to make a few comments on the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and then I'd be happy to take your questions.
We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border.
As we've said before, we are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time should Vladimir Putin decide to order it. I will not comment on the details of our intelligence information. But I do want to be clear: It could begin during the Olympics, despite a lot of speculation that it would only happen after the Olympics.
As we've said before, we are ready either way. We are ready to continue results-oriented diplomacy that addresses the security concerns of the United States, Russia, and Europe consistent with our values and the principle of reciprocity.
We have continued to make that clear to Russia in close coordination with our European allies and partners.
We are also ready to respond decisively, alongside those allies and partners, should Russia choose to take military action. Our response would include severe economic sanctions, with similar packages imposed by the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, and other countries. It would also include changes to NATO and American force posture along the eastern flank of NATO. And it would include continued support to Ukraine.
The President held a secure video conf- — conference today with key allies and partners to coordinate our approach to this crisis. The participants were the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Poland, Romania, the Secretary General of NATO, and the presidents of the European Union.
We have achieved a remarkable level of unity and common purpose — from the broad strategy, down to technical details.
If Russia proceeds, its long-term power and influence will be diminished, not enhanced, by an invasion. It will face a more determined transatlantic community. It will have to make more concessions to China. It will face massive pressure on its economy and export controls that will erode its defense industrial base. And it will face a wave of condemnation from around the world.
If, on the other hand, Russia truly seeks a diplomatic outcome, it should not only say so, it should pursue that diplomatic outcome.
We are prepared to do that. We have put concrete proposals on the table. They are now out there for the world to see. We're prepared to engage on them and to discuss the principles and parameters of European security with our European partners and with Russia.
Whatever happens next, the West is more united than it's been in years. NATO has been strengthened. The Alliance is more cohesive, more purposeful, more dynamic than at in any time in recent memory.
In terms of immediate next steps, President Biden and his team will remain in close contact with our allies and partners to coordinate both on the potential for diplomacy and on any response that is necessary should Putin decide to order military action.
We are continuing to reduce the size of our embassy footprint in Kyiv.
And I want to take a moment to echo what both President Biden and Secretary Blinken have already said: We encourage all American citizens who remain in Ukraine to depart immediately.
We want to be crystal-clear on this point: Any American in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible, and in any event, in the next 24 to 48 hours.
We obviously cannot predict the future. We don't know exactly what is going to happen. But the risk is now high enough and the threat is now immediate enough that this is what prudence demands.
If you stay, you are assuming risk with no guarantee that there will be any other opportunity to leave and no prospect of a U.S. military evacuation in the event of a Russian invasion.
If a Russian attack on Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could, obviously, kill civilians without regard to their nationality. A subsequent ground invasion would involve the onslaught of a massive force.
With virtually no notice, communications to arrange a departure could be severed and commercial transit halted. No one would be able to count on air or rail or road departures once military action got underway.
Now, again, I'm not standing here and saying what is going to happen or not happen. I'm only standing here to say that the risk is now high enough and the threat is immediate enough that prudence demands that is the time to leave now while commercial options and commercial rail and air service exist, while the roads are open.
The President will not be putting the lives of our men and women in uniform at risk by sending them into a warzone to rescue people who could have left now but chose not to. So, we are asking people to make the responsible choice.
With that, I'm happy to take your questions.
Q Jake?
MR. SULLIVAN: Yeah.
Q Thanks, Jake. I know you don't want to get into the intelligence, but can you give us any sense what has changed over the past 24 or 48 hours to lead to your new level of concern?
MR. SULLIVAN: Well, first, I would say: When I appeared on the Sunday shows last weekend, I made the point that we were in the window, that Russian military action could begin any day now. And that remains true. It could begin any day now. And it could occur before the Olympics have ended.
I'm not going to get into intelligence information. But if you look at the disposition of forces in both Belarus and in Russia — on the other side of the Ukrainian border, from the north, from the east — the Russians are in a position to be able to mount a major military action in Ukraine any day now. And for that reason, we believe that it is important for us to communicate to our allies and partners, to the Ukrainians, and to the American citizens who are still there.
I want to be crystal-clear though: We are not saying that a decision has been taken — a final decision has been taken by President Putin. What we are saying is that we have a sufficient level of concern, based on what we are seeing on the ground and what our intelligence analysts have picked up, that we are sending this clear message. And it remains a message that we have now been sending for some time. And it is — yes, it is an urgent message because we are in an urgent situation.
Q But just to clarify: So you now believe that Russia has all the forces it needs to mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine?
MR. SULLIVAN: What I'm saying is that Russia has all the forces it needs to conduct a major military action. I'm not sure exactly what you mean by, quote, "full-scale invasion," but Russia could choose, in very short order, to commence a major military action against Ukraine.
Yes?
Q Has NATO told the President that it will call up the NATO Response Force of Americans who have been put on that short leash? And is the President prepared to send additional unilateral forces to our partners in the border region of Ukraine?
And is it your judgment and the judgment of U.S. intelligence and the U.S. government that Putin is behaving as a rational actor in his judgments at this point?
MR. SULLIVAN: So, on the question of the President authorizing more unilateral U.S. forces to Europe: He's been clear all along that he is open to doing so as circumstances warrant.
But I want to be very clear about something: These deployments of U.S. service members to Poland, to Romania, to Germany — these are not soldiers who are being sent to go fight Russia in Ukraine. They are not going to war in Ukraine. They are not going to war with Russia. They're going to defend NATO territory, consistent with our Article 5 obligation. They are defensive deployments. They are non-escalatory. They are meant to reinforce, reassure, and deter aggression against NATO territory.
In terms of the U.S. forces that have been put on heightened readiness to be deployed in the event of a NATO decision to deploy them: The President had the chance, as part of the discussion today, to hear from the Secretary General. No decisions have been taken in that regard, but those forces standby should a decision be taken by the North Atlantic Council to call up the NATO Response Force and a request comes in for American forces to be a part of that.
Finally, I can't get inside the head of President Putin. I'm not going to speculate as to his motivations, his intentions, or, at this point, his decisions. All I will say is that we are ready either way.
If President Putin wants to engage in diplomacy, we are prepared to engage in diplomacy. We would like to find a diplomatic path forward, and we've sketched out the parameters and principles for that.
If President Putin chooses to move forward, we will work in lockstep with our allies and partners to respond decisively.
Yeah.
Q Thanks, Jake. It sounds like you're saying that the assessment previously — that Putin has not yet made a decision — still stands. So, I guess based on that, is it your estimate that it's more likely that an invasion could happen now than previously believed?
MR. SULLIVAN: Look, it's hard to assign percentage probabilities to any of this. We have to think about the range of scenarios that we confront, and it's our job to be ready for all of them.
So, what I will say is that the way that he has built up his forces and put them in place, along with the other indicators that we have collected through intelligence, makes it clear to us that there is a very distinct possibility that Russia will choose to act militarily, and there is reason to believe that that could happen on a reasonably swift timeframe.
Now, we can't pinpoint the day at this point, and we can't pinpoint the hour, but what we can say is that there is a credible prospect that a Russian military action would take place even before the end of the Olympics.
Q In the warning that you just delivered to Americans who are in Ukraine, saying that they should get out now while they still can, do you have a picture of how many Americans right now are in Ukraine?
MR. SULLIVAN: I would refer you to the State Department for the specifics on this because —
Q They said they don't know.
MR. SULLIVAN: — I don't want to do it off the top of my head. There is basically two categories: There are those who have registered with the embassy and those who have not registered with the embassy. In the first category, obviously, they have a number, although some of those folks have already left and didn't deregister. In the second category, we don't know because, of course, no American is obligated or required.
So, you can't fix a perfect number. But they're the ones who are best positioned to be able to explain what our current picture is of American citizens in Ukraine.
What I can do is stand before the world media and send a very clear message to all Americans. And to any American who's in Ukraine right now who needs help — needs financial help or needs logistical help to take advantage of a commercial option to get out: Please call the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv because we stand ready to provide that help.
Yes.
Q Thanks, Jake. I got two quick questions. One, are you looking at this being some kind of attack on Kyiv, on the Donbas, on another region? Do you have any sense of that?
And then, what is the level of confidence that the intelligence community has in what they're hearing about this plan, especially about the potential for it to come before the end of the Olympics?
MR. SULLIVAN: When you say — I'm sorry, can you repeat the second question?
Q Just around the confidence that the intelligence world has around whether this will happen before the Olympics.
MR. SULLIVAN: The intelligence community has sufficient confidence that I can stand before you today and say what I have said, which is that there is a distinct possibility that Vladimir Putin would order a military action and invasion of Ukraine in this window, in this time period, and that could include the time period before February 20th, before the Beijing Olympics have been completed.
And so, they believe that that — everything I have just said is well-grounded in both what they are seeing on the ground and what they are picking up through all of their various sources.
Now, to your question about what type of action it would be: We've been clear that it could take a range of different forms. But I want to be equally clear that one of those forms is a rapid assault on the city of Kyiv. That is a possible line of attack, course of action that the Russian forces could choose to take. They could also choose to move in other parts of Ukraine as well.
The last point that I would make — and I know this has been the subject of a fair amount of back-and-forth between the administration and the press over the course of the past week: We are firmly convinced that the Russians, should they decide to move forward with an invasion, are looking hard at the creation of a pretext — a false-flag operation — something that they generate and try to blame on the Ukrainians as a trigger for military action.
And we are calling that out publicly because we do believe that if Russia chooses to do that, they should be held to account; the world should not believe that a false-flag operation that they conducted is a legitimate casus belli for going into Ukraine.
Yes.
Q Thanks. Thanks, Jake. You mentioned that you do not want to say that Putin has made a decision. But can — does the United States believe that the President — pardon me, that President Putin has made a decision? Because PBS NewsHour just reported a little bit ago that the United States does believe that Putin has made a decision and has also communicated that decision to the Russian military. Is that accurate?
MR. SULLIVAN: The report that you just referenced, which I have not seen yet, it does not accurately capture what the U.S. government's view is today.
Our view is that we do not believe he has made any kind of final decision — or we don't know that he has made any final decision. And we have not communicated that to anybody.
Yes.
