Australia is on track for another year of historically high cattle throughput, with Meat & Livestock Australia's (MLA) latest Australian Cattle Industry Projections forecasting total slaughter to reach 9.45 million head in 2026, the highest result since 1978 and above the 2025 total.
MLA's Manager for Market Information Stephen Bignell said producers were entering 2026 from a strong position.
"It is forecasted that 9.45 million head of cattle will be processed in 2026, which is the highest level recorded in almost five decades," Mr Bignell said.
"This reflects strong global demand and solid production conditions across much of northern Australia."
The national herd is expected to remain above 30 million head, easing 1% to 30.78 million as higher slaughter is offset by widespread rain and improved northern growing conditions. By 2028 the herd is projected to decline by about 6% as the effects of sustained high turnoff flow through the system.
Average carcase weights are forecast to remain subdued at around 307.5 kilograms, influenced by a larger proportion of grassfed cattle in the production sector.
Production and slaughter
MLA's latest outlook forecasts record beef production of 2,906,000 million tonnes carcase weight (cwt) in 2026, with elevated slaughter and broad seasonal support in Queensland and the Northern Territory helping underpin national output.
Stephen Bignell said the production result highlighted the resilience of the industry.
"Production is expected to reach just over 2.9 million tonnes this year. Even with slightly lighter carcase weights due to higher projected grassfed slaughter, the sector is positioned to deliver another production record," Mr Bignell said.
"This would be the highest annual beef production on record at nearly 2.8 million tonnes cwt set in 2025, an 4% increase year-on-year."
The strong fundamental drivers include continued processor demand, improved paddock conditions in many northern regions and ongoing productivity gains from genetics and herd management.
While slaughter is expected to remain at historically high levels this year, it is projected to gradually ease in 2027 and 2028 as the herd contracts, a -13.3% change in 2028 compared to 2025.
Exports and global demand
Australian beef exports are projected to reach a record 2.3 million tonnes carcase weight (cwt) in 2026, supported by record production and tight global supply.
Demand for lean, grassfed beef remains firm, with the United States continuing to experience reduced domestic supply. This is contributing to a greater turnoff of grassfed cattle in Australia, which in turn influences national carcase weights.
"It is important to note that these projections were consulted and written prior to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East," Mr Bignell said.
"However, Australia's beef markets are well diversified and there remains significant demand for Australian beef all over the world.
"We expect the conflict to influence input costs and logistics, and it is likely to affect exports to the region and global beef trade more broadly. MLA will continue to monitor market conditions and update settings as required."
For live export, higher Australian cattle prices at the end of 2025 softened the typical earlyyear start to trade, and shifts in demand dynamics in key destinations such as Vietnam and Indonesia will remain important.
Despite these pressures, demand for affordable beef across the region remains stable and tightening local herds in importing countries may support ongoing trade.
Looking ahead
Analyst forecasts point to a stable price outlook through the remainder of FY2026.
The National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) is forecast to rise 3% by 30 June, while the feeder steer and heavy steer indicators are expected to move only modestly at +0.7% and –0.3% respectively.
Mr Bignell said the coming years will be shaped by how the national herd responds to sustained high slaughter.
"Price movements across the major indicators are expected to remain steady.
Modest shifts in the feeder and heavy steer indicators, combined with growth in the young cattle indicator, point to a market that is well supplied but still underpinned by firm global demand," Mr Bignell said.
"The herd will remain above 30 million head this year, which is a positive sign. We expect the herd to decline by about 6% by 2028 as the influence of consecutive high turnoff years becomes more evident."
Despite the projected contraction, improvements in productivity, feeding systems, management and genetics continue to underpin the industry's long-term trajectory.
Producers and supply chain partners should monitor seasonal conditions, market settings and export trends closely as processing volumes remain elevated.
