- Launched at COP30, UNEPs Global Cooling Watch 2025 report warns that global cooling capacity could more than triple by 2050, nearly doubling cooling-related emissions under business-as-usual and straining grids during peak power demand.
- The report sets out a Sustainable Cooling Pathway that could deliver a 64% reduction in emissions by 2050, and 97% with electricity decarbonisation, while expanding lifesaving cooling to those most at risk.
- The economic case is compelling: an estimated US$17 trillion in cumulative energy savings and up to US$26 trillion in avoided grid investments by 2050.
- The report urges treating cooling as essential infrastructure and adopting policies that get us on a sustainable cooling pathway.
What is the most important takeaway from Global Cooling Watch 2025?
Heatwaves are the deadliest climate hazard. As populations, cities and incomes grow alongside intensifying heat, the race to deliver life-saving cooling must be won sustainably and equitably. Cooling - which spans space cooling for safety and comfort, process cooling for industry, and cold chains that protect food, medicines and crops - is now essential infrastructure, especially in cities where heat islands can raise temperatures by 5 to 10 C.
The way forward must balance both mitigation and adaptation goals. Unsustainable cooling drives emissions, grid stress and inequality, but too tight of a focus on equipment emissions overlooks affordable, equitable ways to expand cooling.
How big is the heat and access divide, and whos most at risk?
More than 1 billion people already lack access to adequate cooling and without action, this number could triple by 2050 contributing to hundreds of thousands of heat-related deaths each year. Most vulnerable are low-income and high-risk groups, including women, the elderly, and people living in poorly built housing with limited green space, outdoor workers, and smallholder farmers whose livelihoods depend on cold storage to bring their produce to market.
During heatwaves, surging demand for cooling strains electricity systems, turning grid resilience into a public health issue. A passive-first approach prioritizing passive cooling, low-energy and hybrid solutions combining fans and air conditioners can cut demand, emissions and costly infrastructure needs.
What happens on a business-as-usual path for cooling demand?
Cooling demand is set to surge, with global cooling capacity projected to more than triple from 22 TW in 2022 to 68 TW by 2050. Even with efficiency gains and phase-downs of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) - powerful greenhouse gases used mainly in refrigeration and air-conditioning - emissions from cooling could still climb from 4.1 Gt to 7.2 Gt over the same period.
Demand is growing most quickly in Africa and South Asia, where unmanaged air-conditioner adoption risks overloading grids, triggering power outages and heightening costs of power generation.
What is the Sustainable Cooling Pathway, and how far can it bend the curve?
The Sustainable Cooling Pathway laid out in the report combines passive design, low-energy and hybrid options (fans, evaporative coolers, hybrid fan-AC systems, and off-grid appliances), rapid uptake of high-efficiency equipment, and an accelerated HFC phase-down.
This would reduce emissions to 64 per cent - 2.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide -below the levels expected in 2050.Crucially, about two-thirds of the mitigation comes from passive and low-energy cooling. The economic upside is substantial: around US$17 trillion in energy savings and up to US$26 trillion in avoided grid investments.
As cooling is powered by electricity, if the grid is fully decarbonized, this would cut cooling-related emissions up to 97 per cent by 2050, as compared to business-as-usual.
How does a passive-first, low-energy approach deliver equity and speed?
Passive cooling measures could sustainably expand access to cooling for the 3 billion people who will need it and not otherwise have it by 2050, while delivering on emissions cuts. These measures can lower indoor temperatures by 0.5 to 8 C, often pay themselves back in two to eight years, and can reduce and sometimes eliminate the need for mechanical cooling systems.
Hybrid systems combining fans and AC can cut energy use by 30 per cent, solar-powered fans, evaporative coolers and refrigerators are viable options that are often affordable and use minimal energy particularly important for off-grid populations.
At scale, the Sustainable Cooling Pathway would reduce the projected stock of cooling equipment in 2050 by 41 per cent.
Where do policies stand after the Global Cooling Pledge, and whats missing?
The Global Cooling Pledge targets a 68 per cent cut in cooling emissions by 2050 (as compared to 2022). Intermediate milestones of 18 per cent cuts by 2030 and 55 per cent by 2040 are highlighted in the report.
Momentum is building. Twenty-nine countries now have explicit cooling-emissions targets, and 134 reference cooling in their climate plans including National Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Action Plans (NAPs),long-term low-emission development strategies (LT-LEDS) and/or energy plans.
However, only 54 countries have policies in place that address the core pillars of the Sustainable Cooling Pathway (passive measures, minimum energy performance standards and rapid refrigerants phase-down), with implementation especially thin in Africa and the Asia-Pacific. Critically, very few countries mandate passive cooling in building codes, underscoring the need to prioritize cooling in codes and provide clear guidance for developers.
What are the highest-impact policy moves right now? How should governance evolve from emergency response to systemic heat resilience?
Making passive cooling mandatory through building codes is the single strongest lever to shift from mechanical to passive cooling, especially in parts of the world where cooling is going to be needed most (only about a fifth of new floor space is currently coded in Africa, for instance). Next, minimum efficiency performance standards of cooling equipment need to be in line with the best available technology and incorporate refrigerant global warming potential limits.
Lastly, because cooling spans a multitude of sectors, coordination is crucial. Governments should align relevant policies across climate strategies (NDCs/LT-LEDS), NAPs, National Cooling Action Plans, and commitments under the HFC-focused Kigali Amendment to ensure coherent, mutually reinforcing action.
How is UNEP mobilizing action to implement the Sustainable Cooling Pathway?
Seventy-two countries have committed to the Global Cooling Pledge. Launched at COP28 by the UNEP-led Cool Coalition and the COP28 Presidency, the Global Cooling Pledge commits countries to cut cooling-related emissions by 68 per cent by 2050, as compared to 2022 baselines, while expanding access to sustainable cooling, and to double the efficiency of new air conditioners by 2030.
This year's Global Cooling Watch findings make clear the importance of passive-first and low energy, cooling, which cities - at the forefront of heat impacts - are best placed to implement.
Launched at COP30 by the COP30 Presidency and UNEP-led Cool Coalition, Beat the Heat is a collective effort to localize the Global Cooling Pledge. It equips cities and sub-national actors with knowledge and technical resources to assess heat vulnerability, embed cooling projects in urban development, plan and implement passive cooling, and lead public procurement of high-efficiency, low-emissions cooling technologies.
