The peer-reviewed study, The Earth4All Scenarios: Human Wellbeing on a Finite Planet Towards 2100, uses a system dynamics-based modelling approach to explore two future scenarios: Too Little Too Late, and the Giant Leap. The model presented in the paper provides the scientific basis for the analysis and policy recommendations of Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity , published in 2022.
The model's findings show that under our current 'business as usual' conditions – the Too Little Too Late scenario – humanity risks a gradual slide into ever worsening breakdowns: a steadily greyer and more fragmented world.
However, the Giant Leap scenario demonstrates that a window of opportunity still remains open for global action to reverse declining wellbeing trends, keep global warming below 2°C, reduce inequality, and create the conditions for sustained prosperity throughout the century.
The study identifies five "extraordinary turnarounds" which, if enacted simultaneously, could fundamentally alter humanity's trajectory: ending poverty, reducing inequality, empowering women, and transforming global food and energy systems. "Extraordinary" refers to a substantial change in investments relative to the previous four decades.
Lead author Per Espen Stokens of BI Norwegian Business School said: "We asked a simple but urgent question: can human wellbeing improve while reducing pressures on the planetary boundaries? Our model says yes – but only if we make these turnarounds through decisive shifts in our current economic policies."
A key innovation of the study is the introduction of two novel indices: social tension and wellbeing. This enabled the researchers to model not just the complex interactions between economic and environmental factors in the two scenarios, but also include social feedback loops capturing trust, public investment, and political capacity. The modelling results suggests that rising inequality and environmental degradation fuel social tensions, which in turn reduce governments' capacity to implement the long-term policies needed to address existential risks linked to climate change and other planetary boundaries.
"By integrating a social tension index and a wellbeing index, we have been able to highlight the importance of social dynamics in climate scenarios," explained co-author Nathalie Spittler of BOKU University. "Achieving climate goals is not just a question of technological and economic developments. If wellbeing declines and social tensions rise, this creates a negative feedback loop where the very conditions needed for transformational change become harder to achieve."
Conversely, the study suggests that actions to reduce inequality and increase social cohesion and wellbeing are key if governments want to implement policy shifts on climate and other global issues.
The study highlights the speed and scale of action required to ensure wellbeing for all on a liveable planet by 2100. "The Giant Leap scenario shows we have is a technically plausible, but ambitious path forward," commented Per Espen Stoknes. "It requires a level of international cooperation and political leadership we have yet to see, but such a political shift could still deliver a thriving future for humanity on a stable planet."
