Pollinators, including bees, butterflies, and beetles, shape global food production and support vast natural ecosystems. For years, efforts to protect these critical species have leaned on broad global targets and uniform conservation recommendations. However, a new study led by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar (IITGN) and Northeastern University, USA, demonstrates that such generalised approaches may not have the desired impact, and in some regions, could offer imperceptible benefit. The research, published recently in Communications Earth & Environment , highlights how climate change affects pollination systems differently across the tropics, Mediterranean, and temperate zones. It also emphasises the need to develop adaptive conservation strategies that are tailored to the ecological context and do not follow a one-size-fits-all format.
Speaking about their research, Dr Udit Bhatia, an Associate Professor at IITGN's Department of Civil Engineering and the principal investigator of the study, said, "Unlike most research that examines how climate change affects individual species, we have attempted to map entire ecological networks from diverse regions." The team analysed eleven real-world networks of plants and pollinators from tropical, temperate, and Mediterranean regions and observed their responses to increasing temperatures. By combining network information with climate projections from multiple Earth System Models, they investigated how rising temperatures could alter growth rates, mortality, competition, and the strength of mutual relationships between species over the next 75 years.
"Our results indicated that tropical networks, home to some of the world's most biodiverse ecosystems, showed the greatest vulnerability," said Ms Adrija Datta, first author of the study and a PhD scholar in IITGN's Department of Earth Sciences. The team ran simulations, which indicated a sharp reduction in pollinator populations with rising temperatures, with several networks losing stability. Even moderate warming substantially reduced pollinator abundance in these systems, increasing dependence on a few dominant species. Many species in these regions already function near their upper thermal limits, meaning even slight temperature increases can push them beyond physiological tolerance. Mediterranean networks also showed steep declines, driven by intense summer heat and sharp seasonal fluctuations. By contrast, temperate ecosystems, such as those found in much of Europe and North America, exhibited comparatively slower declines, primarily because species in these regions experience broad seasonal temperature ranges and maintain wider thermal safety margins.
However, the study notes that the relative stability of the temperate ecosystem does not imply long-term safety. "Despite the ecosystem being relatively balanced, the inclusion of other pollinator threats, such as habitat loss, pesticide exposure, and timing mismatches between plants and pollinators, could accelerate decline," added Mr Sarth Dubey, co-author and a PhD scholar in IITGN's Department of Computer Science and Engineering. These results indicate the necessity of developing region-specific conservation efforts to maximise biodiversity protection.
To test whether such targeted interventions could be effective, the team evaluated two strategies: protecting a single influential species and supporting multiple highly connected species. In tropical networks, restoring multiple keystone species enhanced pollinator abundance and community balance, thereby increasing network resilience. However, the same strategy yielded minimal change in Mediterranean and temperate systems. "Management works in the tropics because there are species whose presence and abundance hold the network together," explained Ms Datta. "That kind of leverage does not exist everywhere."
The findings reinforce that conservation cannot be exported wholesale from one region to another. Scientists, policymakers and conservation planners need to develop strategies that reflect biology, climate exposure, and the structure of species interactions. "Climate adaptation policies are being negotiated worldwide, but ecological responses are not universal," said Mr Dubey. The study provides a scientific basis for prioritising where action is most urgent, and where ecosystems may have built-in capacity to cope.
As the next step, the researchers plan to integrate additional pressures such as land-use change, chemical exposure, and fragmentation to build a more comprehensive risk model. According to Dr Bhatia, understanding how these combined stresses may reshape networks, particularly in regions currently considered stable, will be critical for long-term conservation planning.
