Key points:
- Restocker cattle prices have remained stable in 2025 despite weather and trade disruptions.
- The restocker steer and heifer indicators are currently 407¢/kg lwt and 326¢/kg lwt respectively.
- Steers hold a 23% premium over heifers, though it's slightly lower than recent years.
In November 2023, Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) assessed whether the notable premium of restocker steers over heifers would persist (see article Will the steer to heifer premium continue?). As the cattle market navigates a complex and shifting landscape in 2025, it's timely to revisit the restocker segment and assess how these dynamics have evolved.
Overview
In 2024, price movements across the restocker segment were among the most stable in recent memory. So far in 2025, the red meat sector has faced some significant disruptions. Dry conditions continue to impact southern regions, heavy rainfall and cyclones have caused floods in Queensland and northern NSW, and tariffs for all products imported into the US have been announced. Yet, restocker prices have held relatively steady through it all, offering a contrast to the finished cattle market, where prices have been more reactive to shifts in supply and demand.
Restocker market reactions
Restocker heifers are a useful gauge in understanding producers' growth intentions. Restocker heifers are predominantly purchased as breeding stock – when demand is strong, it often points to confidence in herd rebuilding or expansion. On the other hand, restocker steers are typically bought for backgrounding before entering the feedlot or growing out to grassfed bullocks, and are more closely tied to overall market sentiment and future finishing demand.
A recent example: over the past two weeks, which have been interrupted by long weekends, the restocker heifer indicator held steady within a narrow 7¢ range, landing at 328¢/kg liveweight (lwt). Restocker steers, however, moved more than 15¢, driven in part by shifts in processor demand for finished cattle, which flowed back into the lighter steer categories.
Have the premiums remained?
Restocker steers generally trade at a premium over heifers. The Restocker Steer Indicator and Restocker Heifer Indicator are at 407¢/kg lwt and 326¢/kg lwt respectively. The current premium is at 23%, with the year-to-date average at 24%. While this is reduced against 2024 and 2023 (which both averaged 31%), it remains relatively elevated on long-term averages. A widening premium often reflects a surplus of breeding females relative to current demand. In contrast, a narrowing premium typically signals increased competition for heifers during herd rebuilding phases.
The strength and stability of the market point towards a stable national herd with adequate demand, implying no push for growth, yet no severe liquidation or overstocking.
Attribute to: Erin Lukey, MLA Senior Market Information Analyst
MLA makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness or currency of any information contained in this publication. Your use of, or reliance on, any content is entirely at your own risk and MLA accepts no liability for any losses or damages incurred by you as a result of that use or reliance. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the prior written consent of MLA. All use of MLA publications, reports and information is subject to MLA's Market Report and Information Terms of Use.
