This is a similar line to the one often used by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, suggesting Australia needs more gas to underpin the nation's electricity supply.
Australia Institute research, using the government's and the gas companies' own data, proves this is simply not true.
Australia has so much gas that it exports most of it, royalty-free, overseas. Even then, there is enough uncontracted gas to comfortably supply all of Australia's domestic and manufacturing needs.
The analysis shows that so-called shortages are the result of too much gas being exported, not a shortage of gas coming from underground.
There's also significant data to show that batteries are a lower-cost alternative to gas for firming renewables.
Key points:
- Fifteen times more gas is exported from eastern Australia than is used to generate electricity, and five times more gas than is used for manufacturing. [AEMO GSOO 2025]
- Gas demand for electricity has more than halved over the last decade as renewables have increased. [AEMO GSOO 2025]
- The key cause of potential gas shortages in Australia is that gas exporters sell large volumes of gas to the global spot market rather than supplying Australians. More
- The ACCC has singled out Santos for exporting domestic gas to make up for "insufficient gas production to meet their contracted SPA [sales an purchase agreement] demand and a reliance on domestic gas purchases to fill the gap." [ACCC June 2025, p.65]
- The CSIRO and Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) have shown renewables, including the cost of firming, are far cheaper than gas for producing electricity. [CSIRO GenCost 2024]
- It is incorrect to say "without gas there is no firming of our electricity system." Batteries and hydro both provide firming. Batteries are already cheaper than gas for firming renewable energy and battery costs fell 20% last year. [CSIRO GenCost 2024].
- Even if gas from Narrabri does supply the Australian market because the gas market is interconnected, gas exporters can simply export other gas that would have supplies Australian customers by the equivalent amount, resulting in a net zero increase in gas for Australians. Link.
"Australia doesn't have a gas shortage. We produce three times as much gas as we use in eastern Australia. The problem is we are allowing gas exporters to sell uncontracted gas to the global spot market ahead of supplying Australians, said Mark Ogge, Principal Advisor at The Australia Institute.
"It is ridiculous to claim we need to approve new gas projects to back up renewables when we are exporting fifteen times more gas than we use for electricity. Gas demand for electricity is plummeting and batteries are cheaper than gas for firming renewables.
"New gas projects like Narrabri will do nothing to increase gas for Australians even if the molecules from any given project go to Australian customers. Because we have an interconnected gas network, the gas exporters can simply export the equivalent amount of gas from elsewhere that would otherwise have supplied Australians, resulting in a net zero increase in the domestic gas supply. It's a shell game.
"The gas export industry controls 90% of eastern Australia's gas. It engineers gas shortages and price increases for Australians by selling uncontracted gas to the global spot market, then tries to leverage those shortages to get new gas projects approved so they can export even more of our gas."
