Severe TC Narelle: Thursday Weather Update

I'm Angus here at the Bureau of Meteorology.

It is late Thursday morning and this is a Severe Weather Update with a focus on the tropical cyclone. It is here to the east of the Cape York Peninsula.

And from our satellite imagery this morning, we can already see a couple of key things. Firstly, there is a well-defined eye right in the centre of this weather system.

We typically only see an eye when the category of the tropical cyclone is three or higher.

Secondly, the deep cloud layer shown on this by the dark grays and the blacks completely circles around the eye.

This is a symmetrical system, it is well formed and well organised, telling us it is an extremely powerful weather system.

We are likely seeing winds above 200km an hour at the moment around the eye of this tropical cyclone, and that places this as a category five, the top of the scale.

They do not get more powerful than this. Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving westwards towards the Cape York Peninsula,

and it will take approximately 24 hours to get there as a category five system. Most of the way, at least.

We'll see the category five continue through Thursday evening and into Friday morning as it gets closer to the coastline here,

as it gets very close to mainland Queensland, it will interact with some much shallower water.

This could cause it to go from a category five to a high end category four, about the time it crosses the coast.

That is still an extremely powerful weather system and will have some significant impact across the northern part of the state.

The warning area extends from the Lockhart River here in the north down to Cape Tribulation in the south, and in this area we could see some pretty major weather hazards.

As this system arrives late on Friday morning. First and foremost, it will be the intensity of the wind that could cause some issues.

Maximum wind gusts in excess of 250km an hour.

Now, winds of that speed are only likely right around the crossing point, but that is extremely destructive.

Any wind gusts over 200km an hour can cause major damage across a broader region.

Through the northern part of the state, we could see wind gusts between 120 and 160km an hour,

which are still extremely strong winds that will cause damage. There will be a lot of rain as the system approaches and crosses.

During Friday, 24 hour rainfall totals between 100 and 350mm are possible, a big range there. And we'll talk about in a moment why we will see that range.

And there will be some dangerous conditions on and near the coastline with large, powerful waves and extremely high tides that could bring inundation to eastern parts of the Cape York Peninsula, particularly around the high tide on Friday morning.

Here's some of the key weather impacts we anticipate as the system goes on to Queensland. Firstly, significant property damage, particularly near the crossing point,

we spoke about wind gusts up to 250km an hour or higher.

That can lead to anything from broken windows to broken roofs to completely broken and destroyed houses.

We will also see some extensive vegetation damage, 250km/hr winds can uproot large trees or completely strip them of their branches.

This causes a lot of debris to blow around in the air and of course will close roads and can cause further damage. Widespread power failures are absolutely possible,

and other infrastructure disruptions could occur. So today, Thursday is the day to review your tropical cyclone plan.

Make sure you have some water on hand and you have a plan about what you have, what you can do if you have to evacuate quickly.

Then tomorrow, Friday, when the tropical cyclone arrives, it's a day to hunker down, shelter in place and minimize your travel.

And as always, follow all advice from your local emergency services and disaster management. There is a Flood Watch in place across the north of Queensland,

as any areas north of Townsville could see flooding based on the upcoming rainfall. Back to the track map. Now, during Friday,

we will see this weather system cross over the Cape York Peninsula,

maybe as a category four initially, but potentially dropping to a category two system throughout the course of the day.

Late Friday night into Saturday morning, this weather system will move into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Now the waters of the Gulf are very warm and we expect this to lead to re-strengthening of this weather system back to a severe category three tropical cyclone during Saturday over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

This will continue to move westwards, moving on to the eastern edge of the top end of the Northern Territory late on Saturday night,

heading into Sunday morning and then through the day on Sunday. This weather system will cross the top end of the Northern Territory.

Now there are communities through here which are vulnerable at the moment due to recent rain and flooding, including Daly River where there is still major flooding.

There is still minor flooding around Katherine and Beswick, and this is likely to bring more rain to those areas. Here's a look at the rainfall totals between now and Tuesday.

And what I really want you to notice is this narrow band of heavy rain right along the path of the tropical cyclone,

both in the Northern Territory and also this narrow band here in Queensland.

This tells us the heaviest falls will be really near the movement of this tropical cyclone, where we could see 350mm in 24 hours, or perhaps even more, especially around northern Queensland.

Rainfall totals to the north and to the south of the crossing point, as well as the track will be significantly lower.

Back to the track because we are going to track this weather system into early next week as it continues to move westwards,

it may once again leave the country, moving to the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf here between Northern Territory and Western Australia. This is likely to occur during Monday.

There is a chance that this could re-strengthen once again back into a tropical cyclone before moving onto the Kimberley through Monday and Tuesday next week.

We will be seeing some weather impacts through the first half of next week around the Kimberley and northern WA. That could either be due to a tropical low pressure area or a tropical cyclone.

But one thing's for sure, Narelle will be with us and talked about and producing weather impacts for the next several days. So this is definitely a story to keep up to date with.

Keep on top of the Severe Weather Warnings, the forecasts and your local emergency management advice. Thanks for watching. We'll be updating you right throughout the next few days and the weekend.