We can see that on the satellite image, which shows widespread areas of rain and thunderstorms in the north-eastern Coral Sea, well away from the Queensland coast. That system has started to grow, particularly over the last six hours.
But what I want to show you is this system in the water vapour image, which can tell us a few things.
Firstly, you can notice the persistent area of convection over the last 12 to 18 hours, and it is getting larger as well. That tells us the low is deepening.
Secondly, in terms of steering, there are two main steering influences that can be seen on this imagery.
Firstly, notice this anti-cyclonic motion over the western Coral Sea and across Queensland. That is an upper-level ridge which will start influencing this system in the coming days.
Further to the east, you can see this southward-eastward motion. That indicates an upper trough which has been influencing the system over the last 12 to 24 hours, but that feature is now moving away.
If we look at the last few hours, we can see a slight south-westerly jog towards the Queensland coast. That tells us the upper-level ridge has now become the main steering influence of the system and will continue to do so in the coming days.
That is why we have reasonably good confidence the system will continue moving westwards towards the Queensland coast over the coming days.
Because of that, Cyclone Watches are now current for much of the Queensland coast from Lockhart River to Cooktown as the system approaches.
As I mentioned earlier, the system is likely to reach Category 1 strength tomorrow, Category 2 by Thursday, and then approach the coast as a Category 3 system sometime on Friday between Lockhart River and Port Douglas.
Those Cyclone Watches between Lockhart River and Port Douglas include the towns of Cooktown and Coen.
Let's look at the situation in more detail.
Today, tomorrow, and even into the early part of Thursday, conditions will remain quite dry across much of eastern Queensland. Southerly or south-easterly winds will run parallel to the coast, which keeps most of the weather offshore.
However, as the tropical low and developing cyclone approach far northern Queensland through Thursday and Friday, those winds will begin to turn more east-south-easterly.
That will allow rainfall and winds to increase, particularly north of around Townsville and especially along parts of the north tropical coast from Thursday night into Friday.
This map shows just one possible scenario for the track of the system. There remains a range of scenarios, with the crossing point potentially occurring somewhere between Lockhart River and Cooktown.
Because of that uncertainty, it is vital to stay up to date with the latest track maps issued through our website and the Bureau's weather app.
In terms of rainfall, many coastal areas are unlikely to see much over the next couple of days while the system remains further away.
But as it approaches the coast on Thursday and Friday, heavy rainfall will begin to develop across parts of the north tropical coast.
Of particular note, we are likely to see widespread heavy rainfall near and around the point where the tropical cyclone crosses the coast.
We are also likely to see damaging to destructive winds, although the exact impacts will depend heavily on the precise track and intensity of the system.
That is why it is so important to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via our website and the Bureau's app.
Across the north tropical coast and the Peninsula, widespread heavy rainfall is expected, which is why Flood Watches are currently in place for many areas of far northern Queensland.
Those Flood Watches could also be extended further south once we gain a clearer picture of how intense the system becomes and where exactly it crosses later this week and into the weekend.
As we move into the weekend, the system is then expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria.
To summarise, a Cyclone Watch is current between Lockhart River and Port Douglas, including the towns of Cooktown and Coen.
The system is likely to reach Category 1 strength tomorrow, strengthen to Category 2 by Thursday, and potentially approach the far northern Queensland coast as a Category 3 system on Friday, particularly across the Peninsula District.
That is why it is so important to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings through our website and app.
As the system gets closer, please listen to advice from emergency services, make sure your cyclone kit is ready, and we will continue to keep you updated here at the Bureau.
Video current: 12:00 pm AEST Tuesday 17/03/26.
