Spring rainfall is likely to be above average for much of the eastern half of Australia.
First, let's look at recent conditions.
Winter days were warmer than average across large parts of Australia.
Even with cool winter nights across much of the eastern and northern interior, minimum temperatures were still above average overall.
Winter rainfall was close to average for much of Australia.
For Tasmania and central New South Wales, it was drier than usual.
However, parts of the country had above average winter rain, including eastern New South Wales and some southern parts of Western Australia and South Australia.
August was very wet along the New South Wales coast, and in much of Western Australia.
Parts of eastern New South Wales had 2 to 4 times their usual August rainfall, which brought flooding.
At the end of winter, long-term rainfall deficiencies persist in parts of south-eastern Australia.
Soil moisture is currently average to above average across most of Australia,but for parts of the south-east, especially Tasmania, soil moisture remains below average.
Overall, Australia's total water storage is currently around 67%.
In south-east Queensland and coastal New South Wales, many storages are at or near capacity.
In contrast, some storages in the south are less than half full and lower than this time last year.
This includes storages in south-east Victoria, which at around 37% full, have dropped by 13% in the past year.
Looking ahead, the long-range forecast for spring shows:
Above average rainfall is likely for much of the eastern half of Australia.
Rainfall is likely to be in the typical range for some parts of the south, tending to drier than average for the south-west.
The first significant rains of the northern Australian wet season are likely to be earlier than usual for most of Queensland and the Northern Territory and later than usual for Western Australia.
In parts of the east there's an increased chance of unusually high rainfall.
Daytime temperatures for spring are very likely to be above average across northern Australia, as well as for Victoria and Tasmania.
There's an increased chance of unusually warm spring days in the tropical north, and across Tasmania.
Overnight temperatures for spring are very likely to be above average for eastern and northern Australia.
However, in southern areas there can still be a risk of frost.
As we approach the warmer months, the risk of heatwaves and bushfires increases.
There's an increased risk of fire this season for parts of south-east and north-west Australia.
Now is a good time to prepare and review your bushfire and emergency plans.
Our streamflow forecast shows near-median to high flow is likely for scattered areas in the east and north.
Low streamflow is likely for many southern sites.
This spring, warmer than average sea surface temperatures are forecast across much of the globe, including around Australia.
In the Pacific Ocean, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is neutral. But a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event is increasingly likely in the coming months.
This typically increases rainfall over southern and eastern Australia during spring.
In summary, our forecast for spring shows: above average rainfall for much of the eastern half of Australia; an early northern rainfall onset for most of Queensland and the Northern Territory; warmer than average days and nights across much of Australia; and, an increased bushfire risk in parts of Western Australia and the south-east mainland.
We update the long-range forecast weekly, where you can find the latest maps for the weeks and months ahead.
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