Winter was warmer than average across most of Australia. This was especially notable for south-eastern parts of the country where slow-moving high-pressure systems dominated.
Winter rainfall was above average for much of Australia's interior and south, adding to the already substantial rainfall recorded across these regions so far in 2026. However, below average winter rain was observed across much of eastern Australia and in the far south-west.
As a result, soil moisture is now below average through the root zone, and into some of the deeper soil layers. This includes some key agricultural regions of south-west WA and along much of the eastern seaboard. Soils remain wetter than average across much of the interior and inland south-east.
The wet soils and above average rainfall during August have led to flooding in parts of the Flinders Ranges in South Australia, and parts of northern Victoria. In recent weeks, high streamflow has been observed in the north and south-east, including inland Victoria and northern Tasmania. Streamflow has been low in the east and the south-west of the country.
Overall, Australia's total water storage is currently around 70%. Winter is an important filling season for storages. However, some storages in the south and east are less than half full. In the north and east, many storages are at or near capacity. Storages across the Murray-Darling Basin are currently 65% full increasing by 17% over winter. While overall storage levels remain slightly lower than this time last year, much of that difference reflects a larger decline across the northern part of the Basin.
Looking ahead, much of Australia is likely to see below average rainfall during September, but that signal shifts as the season progresses. For spring overall, above average rainfall is likely for much of the western half of Australia while parts of the south and east, are more likely to be drier than average. Elsewhere, there's roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
There's a high chance of spring rainfall reaching at least 50 to 200 mm across most of the country, except in some inland areas. The first significant rains of the northern Australian wet season are likely to be earlier than usual for most of Western Australia and adjacent parts of the Northern Territory and later than usual for the Territory's Top End and eastern parts of Queensland.
Both daytime and night-time temperatures during spring are very likely to be above average across much of Australia. There is an increased chance of unusually warm spring days across the south while much of the country is likely to experience unusually warm spring nights.
As we approach the warmer months, the risk of heatwaves and bushfires increases. Spring is the peak fire season for much of northern Australia. There's an increased risk of fire this spring for parts of every state, and across much of the Northern Territory. Now is a good time to prepare and review your bushfire and emergency plans. Even areas with a normal risk of fire should be prepared.
Sea surface temperatures are forecast to continue warming across the Australian region during spring, increasing the risk of marine heatwaves - especially in the south-east. El Niño is expected to strengthen further during spring and persist into summer.
Warmer ocean temperatures around Australia can also increase atmospheric moisture and energy, which can support storm development and lead to heavier rainfall during rain events.
In summary, our forecast for spring shows:
- above average rainfall for much of the western half of Australia
- below average rainfall in parts of the south and east
- warmer than average days and nights across much of Australia
- an increased bushfire risk across much of the Northern Territory and in parts of each state.
Visit the bureau's website to stay up to date with the latest long-range forecasts. We'll see you next time.
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.
