Sports talent scouts' decisions are influenced by various common cognitive biases that can affect their work and undermine team success, a paper published in the International Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology has suggested.
The research team reviewed the scientific and popular literature in the field covering close to 200 cognitive biases, or logical fallacies that result in decisions being less than fully rational. They then identified 38 biases with a high likelihood of affecting talent identification and selection in sports and created a framework that grouped them into clusters.
"It is our hope that this framework can reduce the number of unfair selections in high-performance sports and lead to more just and effective selections of team members," said Daniel Fortin-Guichard, an Assistant Professor in McGill University's Department of Kinesiology and Physical Education, one of the authors of the review.
First impressions stick
The review found that the order in which information is presented can influence talent identification. For example, scouts may tend to favour players who are seen first, or those whose initial actions are impressive, even if their later performance is average. This phenomenon, known as the primacy effect or anchoring bias, can influence a scout's perceptions of particular athletes during a single game or throughout an entire season.
As well, the researchers found that scouts may pay special attention to aspects of the behaviour of players that confirm their own views or stereotypes, something known as confirmation bias. If they believe a player is talented, they may focus on the positives and overlook flaws. Context also matters, because of the framing effect: a player may seem outstanding compared to younger athletes, but far less impressive among older peers.
The 'hot-hand effect' and other biases
The researchers also identified and categorized a range of other biases: Scouts may assume that a player will succeed because they share traits with past stars or resemble them in certain ways (called the availability heuristic). Or they may be influenced by the bandwagon effect to choose certain players if they are thought to be successful by other scouts. They may also be influenced by fallacies like the "hot-hand effect," a mistaken belief that past success on the part of athletes can guarantee future success, such as thinking that a basketball player who has downed several shots in the past will continue to do so.
"The takeaway from our review is that talent decisions are rarely neutral," said Fortin-Guichard. "Instead, they're shaped by subtle associations and personal perspectives, often without decision-makers even realizing it."
The researchers suggest that the framework they have developed provides a starting point from which it may be easier to predict which scouts or coaches are most susceptible to bias, and to develop and validate new methods of reducing those biases, making talent selection more equitable in future.
The study
"A framework of cognitive biases that might influence talent identification in sport," by David L. Mann, Daniel Fortin-Guichard & Daniel Müller was published in International Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology.
DOI: 10.1080/1750984X.2025.2556393
Funding
Fonds de Recherche du Québec-Société et Culture.
