TC Mitchell to Hit WA Coast This Weekend

If you look at the very north of our rain radar imagery, you can see some circulation in the rain radar signal north of Port Hedland. That rain is circulating around the tropical cyclone, and because we can see it on the radar, it gives us high confidence of the current position of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell, which is about 150 km north of Port Hedland.

It has recently been increased to a category 2 tropical cyclone, having spent the night as a category 1 system. It's seen some intensification and strengthening through Saturday morning. Now a category 2 system, and it's moving fairly swiftly on a south-westward trajectory at about 15 km an hour. That's pretty fast for a tropical cyclone.

And as we'll see as we play through the track map for the rest of the day on Saturday, that movement is going to take it quite close to the coastline. As we pause this map late on Saturday evening, it is likely that the tropical cyclone will still be out over open waters, a short distance north of Karratha, and still as a category 2 tropical cyclone.

Because it is getting so close to the country, we have already issued these Tropical Cyclone Warning and Watch areas. You'll notice the two different colours here. We'll start with the darker orange Tropical Cyclone Warning, which goes from Pardoo to Ningaloo, including the communities of Exmouth, Onslow, Mardie, Karratha and Port Hedland.

And in that area, damaging to destructive winds are expected to ramp up in the next 24 hours. Many places will see their strongest winds kick in late in the day Saturday, the afternoon, the evening and into the night, continuing to be windy through the day on Sunday. Rain and potential storms are expected to spread across this area as well, from the east to the west, heaviest about the coastline.

This yellow area down to the south is our Tropical Cyclone Watch that goes from Ningaloo down to Carnarvon and inland into the Gascoyne. This area may not see tropical cyclone impacts in the next 24 hours, but in the 24 hours after that, Sunday and Monday morning, we could start to see the impacts of this weather system slide down and hit this part of the country as well.

Some of the key weather impacts we'll be watching out for in the coming few days around this north-western corner include flash and riverine flooding. Rainfall could cause rivers to rise and burst their banks, and flash flooding could cause areas of flooding anywhere that the rain is heavy. That can lead to road closures and potentially community isolation.

The wind around this tropical cyclone will be very strong. Gusts at exposed sites could reach 150 km/h, potentially isolated spots 170 km/h, especially on Sunday. Those winds are strong enough to bring down big branches or entire trees, damage property and lead to power outages.

And for residents on or near the coastline, we expect to see very rough seas and abnormally high tidal levels, which could cause inundation and flooding of low-lying coastal areas, particularly when that tropical cyclone gets very near at high tide on Sunday.

We're going to take a look now at what happens through Sunday and into Monday as the tropical cyclone gets closer and closer to the coast on Sunday, likely to cross onto the coastline during Sunday. In fact, we can put the track map over the top and see when and where it is most likely to reach the coast.

I do just want to pause this here though, because we've seen a recent addition to the track map, which is this category 3 symbol. We expect to see Tropical Cyclone Mitchell increased to a severe category 3 tropical cyclone during the day on Sunday, and then it could be a category 3 system as it does make its way onto the far west of the Pilbara.

We'll zoom in a little bit and see the current forecast for the crossing point is somewhere in the vicinity of Onslow, between Exmouth and Mardie, likely to be a category 3 system at this time, and then weakened to a category 2 system after it makes its way onto the country.

Significant weather impacts are expected all across this area as it gets close to and crosses the coast, Mardie across to Exmouth, with those damaging winds, heavy rain and dangerous seas all expected.

This weather system is not going to dissipate quickly. As we continue into Monday and next week, we'll see the remnants of the system, even though it won't be a tropical cyclone anymore, are going to plunge deeply into central parts of Western Australia. Heavy rain and the potential for some strong winds are expected through much of the Gascoyne, getting into parts of the Central West. Even the Northern Wheatbelt could see some of this rainfall.

A broad swathe of the state could get anywhere between 20 mm and 60 mm of rain. Some people could even get more than that as well. This is Tuesday night, but we're likely to continue to see the rain impacts spread into southern parts of Western Australia on Wednesday. So this weather system will be with us for quite some time.

So throughout the week ahead, make sure you are up to date with the latest weather information and warning information on the Bureau's website or app. Thanks very much for watching, and stay safe.