First, let's have a look at the latest situation. And we can see a tropical low 16 U. Over the open waters of the Indian Ocean, roughly halfway between Bali and Broome. If you zoom in, we have issued a tropical cyclone Watch that extends from the Mitchell Plateau in the north to Derby, Broome and down towards Bidyadanga in the south.
And within this area we could see gale force winds developing in the next 24 to 48 hours, and once gale force winds are expected within the next 24 hours, we'll be issuing tropical cyclone warnings.
So let's have a look at the track map for the rest of Thursday we do see the tropical low moving down towards the southeast. And by Friday, particularly towards the second part of the day, we may see those gale force winds developing along the coast. And at this stage, the system is expected to reach category one strength by Saturday morning. If it does, it will be given the name Tropical Cyclone Luana.
As you can see there, it is quite close to the coast when it does reach Tropical Cyclone strength, and that means it won't have much time to really intensify before crossing the coast. And at this stage, if you extend that track map out even further, it is expected to cross the coast near Derby some time on Saturday before taking a southerly turn and weakening back into a tropical low over the Kimberley on Sunday.
So what sort of impacts can we expect? Well, first, with damaging winds up to 120km an hour, that could cause damage to trees as well as property. And with that storm surge, especially as that system approaches the coast, that could cause inundation of low lying areas, particularly if it does coincide with the high tide on Saturday.
Heavy rain is also expected that can cause flash flooding, and that could also lead to road closures and communities being isolated as well.
So looking beyond that from Sunday, we do say this model does show the tropical low or remnants of the ex tropical cyclone making quite slow moving over the Kimberley, so dragging a lot of wind, showers, rain and storms over the coast, even down towards places like the Pilbara and up towards western parts of the Top End. But beyond that, we are still expected to see widespread showers and rain across parts of eastern Western Australia. Depending on how that tropical low or the remnants of the tropical cyclone do move.
So how much rainfall are we expecting, well out to Monday morning the highest rainfall totals would very much be where the tropical low or tropical cyclone does cross the coast. We could see those totals are to Monday morning reaching 200, even 300mm across parts of the inland Kimberley, and also some pretty decent falls all the way out towards the Pilbara and up towards western parts of the Top End. So that will really depend on where the system does track. And as I mentioned, more rain is expected across interior parts beyond Monday.
So ahead of this rainfall, we have issued a flood watch that covers parts of the northern and western Kimberley. That is for the potential for flooding to cut off roads as well as isolate communities. But we can expect to see further flood watches being issued depending on how that tropical cyclone does move, as some of these watches may also be upgraded into a flood warning. So do keep, of course, the latest updates as we head into the next few days.
So as a tropical alert approaches the Western Australian coast with the potential to become a tropical cyclone, it is important that you have the latest forecast information for your area, whether you are living in the Kimberley or visiting. Young can get this information on our website or app.
