The military junta that overthrew Myanmar's democratically elected government in 2021 is preparing the ground for national elections in December and January.
Author
- Adam Simpson
Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia
The junta's hope is these deeply flawed elections would consolidate its power and provide it with a fig leaf of legitimacy.
Helping its cause are moves by the Trump administration indicating it may be looking to bring the Myanmar junta in from the cold.
A week ago, US President Donald Trump removed sanctions on some allies of Myanmar's generals and their military-linked companies, a move condemned by the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar.
Then came reports the Trump administration was exploring opportunities to access Myanmar's rare earth minerals in an effort to sideline its strategic rival, China.
An election charade
On July 31, Myanmar's military regime cancelled the nationwide state of emergency it had kept in place since the coup, a necessary precondition from 2008 for holding elections under the military-authored constitution .
Hours later, however, it reimposed a state of emergency in dozens of townships where opposition forces are either in control or gaining ground. It then declared martial law in these areas.
This underlined the junta's lack of control over much of the country, which would make holding a free and fair election virtually impossible.
Last year, the military was unable to conduct a full census to be used to compile voter rolls. It was only able to count 32 million people in just over half the country's townships; it had to estimate another 19 million people in areas outside its control.
This week's order also handed power from the commander-in-chief of the military to a head of state, which was presented as a return to civilian governance. However, power didn't actually change hands - Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the coup and military, remains in control as acting president.
Opposition groups have said they will boycott the election, which the UN special rapporteur for Myanmar called a "fraud".
Myanmar's rare earths bonanza
Myanmar's generals may also try to use Trump's apparent interest in the country's rare earths as leverage in their attempt to normalise relations with the United States ahead of a poll.
China is not only a large miner of rare earths, it dominates the processing required to use them , accounting for around 90% of global refining.
In recent years, China has begun reducing its own mining and increasing its extractions from neighbouring Myanmar, the third-largest producer in the world.
Rare earth mining has exploded in northern Kachin State since the coup, much of which is controlled by the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), an ethnic armed group that opposes the junta.
Late last year, it seized two important rare earth mining towns from the military and demanded a greater role in taxing exports to China, which initially closed the border in response.
However, trade soon resumed after the two sides reached a deal on export taxes.
No path forward for Trump
Two different proposals have reportedly been put to Trump for ways to access Myanmar's rare earth deposits. One would entail opening talks with the junta; the other talking directly with the KIO.
Part of this effort could entail Trump reducing the punitive 40% tariffs his administration imposed on Myanmar to sweeten the deal .
Yet, challenges remain to making this a reality. The mines are located in the contested war-torn mountains of northern Myanmar bordering China, which are controlled by the KIO. There is no real infrastructure capable of transporting exports to India's remote northeastern states in the opposite direction. The only other export route is south through territory controlled by the junta or other ethnic armed groups.
In addition, any attempt by the US and its allies to extract thousands of tons of rare earth material away from China's borders would likely anger Beijing. It could pressure the KIO by reducing fuel and food imports coming from China.
The group's independence and ability to fight the junta relies on trade with China. It would not take long for such an agreement to fall apart.
Finally, rare earths mining is extremely polluting and dangerous. Even under Trump, it is unlikely US companies would gamble on the inevitable reputational and legal risks that would accompany such a project, especially in a war zone.
No reasons for warming relations
In essence, any attempt by the Trump administration to secure rare earths from Myanmar through any intermediary will not go anywhere.
There is therefore no justification, on any grounds, for the Trump administration to reduce sanctions on Myanmar's generals or their cronies.
Likewise, although the junta is attempting to legitimise its brutal rule by offering a patina of constitutional processes, its elections will not bring real change to the country.
Myanmar's people have repeatedly demonstrated over the past four decades, in every remotely free and fair election, that they do not want the military involved in the governance on their country.
If the junta does go ahead with this election, the world's governments should call it out for the farcical charade of democracy it will represent. This includes the administration in Washington.
Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
