Ukraine's economy has proved resilient and has effectively weathered ongoing disruptions since Russia's invasion three years ago. Continued reform progress will help lay the foundations for a sustained recovery and long-term growth, according to a new OECD report.
The latest OECD Economic Survey of Ukraine projects continued GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, after 2.9% growth in 2024. Further growth opportunities could arise if the security situation enables a stronger recovery in investment and the return of displaced Ukrainians. Inflation is projected to remain elevated this year, at 13.2%, and to come down to 7.1% in 2026. Monetary policy should continue to be carefully calibrated to ensure that inflation returns to the National Bank's 5% target and that inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
"Ukraine's resilience is a credit to its people and businesses, its economic management and the support of its international partners," OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said, presenting the Survey in Kyiv alongside Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. "Strengthening public finances and implementing strong structural reforms that boost jobs and business investment will be key to a sustained recovery. Once the security situation improves, Ukraine has great potential to achieve a reconstruction that lifts the incomes and well-being of its people towards convergence with OECD countries."
To fund wartime defence spending of 25% of GDP, the budget deficit is expected to be near 20% of GDP, putting public debt on a path to reach 116% of GDP in 2026, up from 49% of GDP in 2021. Increasing spending efficiency will be important to make room for the necessary public investment in reconstruction. In parallel, Ukraine can strengthen tax collection, narrow the coverage of the simplified tax system and boost the efficiency of the tax administration through greater use of digital tools.
War mobilisation and massive displacement have created major labour shortages and amplified the long-term challenges of population ageing and emigration. Helping demobilised defence personnel and displaced persons reintegrate into the labour force and emigrants return will boost labour supply and growth. Reducing restrictions on the types of work that women can do, for example those barring women with young children from taking shift work, would encourage more women to participate in the labour market and lower pay gaps between women and men.
Increasing business investment will be important for improving productivity and export performance. Simplifying regulatory frameworks, promoting competition and innovation, and improving access to finance will be key for attracting more domestic and international investment. Strengthening corporate governance for publicly traded companies, enforcing shareholder protection, and modernising insolvency frameworks will improve investor confidence. Reducing the compliance burden of paying taxes would encourage more formalisation of business activity.
The OECD Integrity and Anti-Corruption Review of Ukraine, also released today, highlights strong progress made in tackling corruption and boosting business integrity, but more remains to be done.
"Even amid Russia's ongoing war of aggression, Ukraine has made significant progress in the fight against corruption, recognising that a robust integrity framework is essential for business confidence, public trust and the post-war recovery," OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said.
Ukraine has demonstrated a strong commitment to public and business integrity, with many elements of its anti-corruption framework now measuring up to those of OECD countries, including the design and implementation of the National Anti-corruption Strategy.
On public integrity, regulations are particularly strong for both conflicts of interest and political financing, where Ukraine meets 100% of OECD Public Integrity Indicators criteria. Implementation of regulations in practice is also above the OECD average, though there remains room for improvement.
Fostering a culture of integrity in the public sector, business and the judiciary at both central and local levels, including by adopting codes of ethics for members of Parliament, Ministers, political appointees, and judges, will be key.
Ukraine also demonstrates a robust system of corruption risk management in public bodies. However, Ukraine does not track whether public bodies have been subject to internal audits, and less than half of the recommendations from the supreme audit institution were implemented.
On business integrity, important achievements to date include establishing channels for reporting bribe solicitation, making the adoption of anti-corruption compliance programmes mandatory for some companies (including those bidding for large public contracts) and reforming the regime of criminal liability of legal persons. To expand on this progress, Ukraine should put these changes into practice by building trust among businesses to ensure they report cases of bribe solicitation, establishing a procedure for the verification of implementation of compliance programmes and effectively applying liability of legal persons for all corruption offences.
Ukraine should also ensure proper registration of private political donations in practice and reinforce whistleblower protections by broadening and implementing its relevant legislation. Accountability of public policy making could be improved by enacting the draft lobbying law and implementing the accompanying register and guidance to prevent undue influence in politics.
