Amsterdam – Concerted and extensive action to transition away from fossil fuels and end forest destruction must become the driving force of government policy in response to the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP's) warning that the global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, likely within the next few years.
The new UNEP report represents the first United Nations (UN) report describing a 1.5°C "overshoot, peak and decline" pathway and comes amid a year of worsening heatwaves, wildfires and a strengthening 'super' El Niño that have already heightened alarm about the pace of climate change. Confirmation of a looming 1.5°C overshoot is the latest reminder of the need for a robust multilateral response to match the mounting scale of the climate threat.[1]
At this year's UN General Assembly and the UN climate talks COP31, world leaders must raise the bar on climate action. Greenpeace is also urging the Santa Marta 'coalition of doers' to spearhead ambitious national action at home and, in a turbulent geopolitical space, drive concrete progress towards a just transition away from fossil fuels.[2][3]
Jasper Inventor, Deputy Programme Director at Greenpeace International, said: "This is news none of us wanted to hear, but overshoot is not the reason to give up and surrender 1.5°C. It's a heartbreaking moment, and we need to reflect on that, but every fraction of a degree still matters and the UNEP report must now serve as a defining call to action.
"The 1.5°C goal is not only a legal, political and moral threshold - it's our lifeline and what we do today and tomorrow will determine our fate. Governments must accelerate a fast, fair and funded just transition into renewable energy, ensure we end and reverse forest destruction by 2030 and hold fossil fuel polluters and forest destroyers to account. To help finance climate action, we must also make polluters pay for climate damages."
The UNEP said although an overshoot of 1.5°C will happen, the extent and duration of it can still be limited through an "overshoot, peak and decline" pathway. However, it reaffirmed that risks and impacts will intensify with every fraction of a degree and time spent above the 1.5°C threshold. Its best-case scenario has a peak temperature rise of 1.8°C if we collectively meet and exceed existing climate commitments. 1.8°C will already carry significant risks, however, including the potential for irreversible tipping points to global systems to be reached.
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is a non-negotiable survival line for humanity. It is enshrined in law by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in an Advisory Opinion - and backed by a UN
General Assembly resolution. The ICJ confirmed 1.5°C was the legal obligation for all states and found that high carbon-emitting countries carry a historical responsibility to act fastest and hardest to protect the most vulnerable communities.
Some of the communities already experiencing the worst of climate impacts live in the Pacific region. The release of the UNEP report coincided with the Pacific Island Forum in Palau, where Pacific island states are meeting to build regional momentum toward COP31 and a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific.[4]
Moemoana Schwenke, Pacific Climate Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific said from Palau: "For the Pacific, 1.5°C is not an ambition, it is a survival line. It is a matter of justice, sovereignty and our right to determine our own futures in our Pacific way. We inherit our lands, oceans and cultures as an entrusted responsibility, not a commodity to be exhausted.
"The International Court of Justice has already been clear that 1.5°C is a legally binding obligation, not just a choice. Pacific communities, for decades, have been clear that our ways of life, homes and livelihoods are under threat from climate disasters and impacts. An overshoot is not compatible with Pacific wellbeing.
"The court and governments must translate responsibility into action: a rapid, just and legally grounded transition away from fossil fuels with no further expansion of coal, oil and gas."
Dr Jerry Jose, Senior Scientist at the Greenpeace International Science Unit said: "Among the many stark warnings, the UNEP report presents the intergenerational burden climate change will impose on future communities in an overshoot scenario. The risks of permanent change escalate as our climate warms. In addition, the multiple decades needed for a decline in the global temperature back to 1.5°C would exacerbate already uneven impacts, many of which having the potential to continue well beyond stabilisation.
"Deep and sustained mitigation in the near-term is essential to limit the peak and duration of the overshoot we are leaving our future generations. Even a decline of temperature is 'not a given' and depends on decisions and actions taken today. This raises profound questions about intergenerational responsibility and must compel us to act now."
