The US-Israeli strikes on Iran have been welcomed by critics of the regime but have also prompted intense concern. They've triggered a dangerous domino effect across the region and beyond. Leiden experts share their insights on the potential consequences.
Anna Marhold, international law expert
Marhold sits on the Advisory Council on International Affairs (AIV), the independent body that advises the Dutch government and parliament.
The United States and Israel have launched attacks on several countries without a UN Security Council mandate. How do you view this?
'The Trump administration no longer bothers to offer legal justification for these attacks or to frame them in the language of international law. That's new. In previous decades, the US often acted unilaterally, as with the invasion of Iraq in 2003. But it did attempt to convince the UN Security Council of its legal case by invoking the right to self-defence.
'That no longer is happening, which signals that the US no longer takes the UN's role seriously and is reverting to a world of spheres of influence and the law of the jungle. Israel has what appears to be unconditional support from the US and is acting in its wake.'
What does this development mean for international law?
'It further undermines the credibility of international law. At its core, international law is a belief system; it only works if the countries consider it more valuable than violation. Once this system breaks down, the consequences are felt worldwide. It's particularly problematic for small countries like the Netherlands, which lack hard power and therefore rely on international cooperation.
'Such behaviour also has a domino effect and encourages militarily strong countries to do as they please: China with Taiwan, for instance. International legal institutions have little capacity to reverse this trend on their own; they depend on the will of their member states.
'We're moving towards a multipolar world order in which countries no longer adhere to fixed alliances but act opportunistically depending on the issue at hand. For the Netherlands, it's essential to continue emphasising the importance of international law and to invest in strong regional legal systems, such as the EU.
'At the same time, we should reflect critically on our own policies of recent decades about international law, especially on the double standards we have applied.'
Babak RezaeeDaryakenar, associate professor of international relations
RezaeeDaryakenari conducts research into geopolitics, political power, and protest and repression in authoritarian regimes, with a focus on Iran.
What does Ayatollah Khamenei's death mean for the Islamic Republic? Is there a clear successor?
'The death of the Supreme Leader and several senior military figures has created an unprecedented moment of succession for the Islamic Republic. According to the constitution, the Assembly of Experts appoints a new Supreme Leader, while an Interim Leadership Council can assume the Supreme Leader's duties until a new one is appointed.
'In practice, however, succession will depend not only on formal criteria but also on whether the religious establishment and the security apparatus, particularly the Revolutionary Guard, can maintain internal cohesion under the pressures of war.'
What is the current sentiment among Iranians?
'It's extremely difficult to obtain reliable national data on public opinion, given the internet blackouts and the authoritarian nature of the state. But the indications suggest there is not a uniform response. Although uncertainty and fear are widespread, there are also clear signs of relief and celebration among parts of the population opposed to the regime.
'This aligns with data from an ongoing survey I've been conducting since 28 December 2025 among roughly 3,000 respondents inside Iran. In this survey, 60% fully support foreign military intervention, 15% partially support it, 9% oppose it but primarily blame the Islamic Republic and 12% are fully opposed, with the remainder being neutral.
'Research into the "rally-around-the-flag" effect shows that external pressure doesn't automatically lead to national unity. At present, both the survey data and responses on social media indicate considerable support for external pressure among segments of the population. Whether that support will grow or diminish will depend on how events unfold in the coming days.'
