New research from The Daffodil Centre, a partnership between Cancer Council NSW and the University of Sydney, suggests that Australia will experience a substantial increase in the number of people living with or beyond cancer over the coming decades, and highlights the growing importance of prevention, early detection, healthcare and survivorship support systems.
The study, "Long-term projections of cancer prevalence in Australia to 2050: a population-based statistical modelling study", provides the first comprehensive long-term projections of cancer prevalence in Australia across 24 cancer types and all cancers combined.
Researchers estimate that nearly 1.7 million Australians are currently living with or beyond cancer, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers. By 2050, this number is projected to rise by a staggering 57%, reaching more than 2.6 million people. Breast cancer is projected to be the most prevalent cancer type, followed by prostate, melanoma and bowel cancer.
Importantly, of these 2.6 million people, 1.15 million are expected to still be living with cancer and will require ongoing treatment or care in 2050, including many people living long-term with advanced or metastatic disease.
Lead author, Associate Professor Qingwei Luo says the findings demonstrate that cancer is increasingly becoming a long-term condition rather than a short-term illness, "More Australians are surviving cancer than ever before, which is a significant success story for cancer control, research and treatment improvement. However, as survival improves and the population grows and ages, more Australians will require ongoing support well beyond their initial diagnosis and treatment."
The findings also highlight the growing impact of cancer among older Australians. By 2050, the number of survivors aged 80 and over is expected to more than double, and many of these will have complex needs, multiple chronic conditions, and long-term treatment effects.
Associate Professor Luo added that these numbers also highlight opportunities to reduce the future cancer burden through continued investment in prevention and screening, "cancer prevalence is driven by both how many people are diagnosed and how long they live with or beyond cancer. These figures show cancer is not going away, but many diagnoses don't have to happen. Preventing cancers from occurring in the first place is the most effective way to reduce the long‑term burden on people and the health system."
Dr Andrea Smith OAM, a prominent Australian cancer researcher, Senior Research Fellow at the Daffodil Centre, who is also living with stage IV metastatic breast cancer, said "Living long-term with incurable cancer, I understand how deeply it affects every part of a person's life. The projected increase in cancer prevalence is a clear call to action. These projections aren't just numbers, they represent real people, families and futures. Knowing that cancer prevalence is set to rise is confronting, but it also reinforces why investment in research, prevention, early detection and support services must keep pace. I'm here today because of advances made in the past. With continued commitment, we can ensure more people not only survive cancer but live well beyond it."
Cancer Council NSW CEO, Professor Sarah Hosking, says that with more people projected to be living with or beyond a cancer diagnosis it poses us with a new challenge to support them to live well, "our work doesn't end at diagnosis or treatment. As more people live longer after cancer, we must continue to understand how to support them to live well, not only during treatment, but long after their diagnosis."
These findings come as Cancer Council's much-loved campaign, Daffodil Day, is celebrating 40 years of investing in cancer research, "when Daffodil Day first took roots in 1986, 5-year cancer survival was approximately 46%. Today, thanks to cancer research breakthroughs, 5-year cancer survival is 72%. We have come a long way in 40 years, and as we look ahead this shift will place increasing pressure on health and care systems, underscoring the need for better integration across cancer services, primary care, and aged care to deliver coordinated, person-centred support." Professor Hosking concludes.
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