Researchers are harnessing the latest advances in artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance weather prediction and improve climate resilience and food security in West Africa.
Project Cumulus is funded by the Gates Foundation and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
The University of Leeds will work alongside the Alan Turing Institute and a consortium of partners to co-design a more accurate forecasting system which could help farmers improve crop yields and reduce economic losses.
By working with top universities and weather services in West Africa, this international partnership will drive innovation in AI weather prediction.
Weather forecasting in West Africa presents a unique set of challenges. As a region increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, unpredictable weather patterns have a direct impact on food security and economic stability.
Farmers often lack access to adequate weather forecasts, forcing them to make critical decisions on planting or harvesting crops without the information they need.
Douglas Parker, Professor of Meteorology in the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds, said: "African rainfall events can be among the most intense in the world, often developing rapidly over only a few hours.
"Using AI-based methods allow us to make more accurate predictions of the probability of rainfall, learning from observations in each country and bringing in information from weather and ocean patterns around the globe.
"By working with top universities and weather services in West Africa, this international partnership will drive innovation in AI weather prediction."
The Earth's rotation and solar heating drive the atmosphere, which means that weather in Africa behaves differently from weather in the mid-latitudes in Europe and the USA, where most forecasting methods were designed, highlighting the need for new models optimised for African conditions.
Traditional physics-based forecasting approaches used in the Global North are less effective in sub-Saharan Africa, so the Cumulus initiative will draw on the project team's contributions to emerging AI technologies like Aardvark Weather and the Aurora Earth System Foundation Model.
These models will help to develop new AI-based forecasting methods tailored to African conditions which will deliver more accurate and locally relevant insights.
The Aardvark technology is fully driven by AI and will combine satellite imagery, ground observations and existing forecast data to create a clearer picture of the atmosphere.
The technology draws on both remote-sensing and local measurements, learning from data-rich regions to improve predictions where data is more scarce such as in sub-Saharan Africa.
The Aurora Earth System Foundation model shows how a single AI model could be adapted for a wide range of forecasting tasks.
The agility of such models will allow the Cumulus initiative to create systems tuned to local weather patterns as well as extending forecasts to sub-seasonal timescales (2-6 weeks) most useful for farmers and the fishing industry.
Crucially, these systems are affordable and adaptable, enabling West African partners to produce their own forecasts, build expertise and drive local innovation.
Dr Scott Hosking, Mission Director for Environmental Forecasting at the Alan Turing Institute, said: "Forecasting rainfall in the tropics is a unique challenge, further complicated by climate change and a historical lack of localised data. To protect lives and livelihoods in these regions, we cannot rely on off-the-shelf AI solutions.
"This partnership between the UK, Ghana, and Senegal focuses on developing AI weather models specifically designed for conditions in West Africa, to provide the precision needed to effectively manage food systems and strengthen community resilience."
