Airline Profits to Rise Modestly in 2025 Amid Challenges

New Delhi – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced updates to its 2025 airline industry financial outlook, showing improved profitability over 2024 and resilience in the face of global economic and political shifts.

Highlights from the expected 2025 financial performance include:

• Net profits at $36.0 billion, improved from the $32.4 billion earned in 2024, but slightly down on the previously projected $36.6 billion (December 2024).
• Net profit margin at 3.7%, improved from the 3.4% earned in 2024 and the previously projected 3.6%.
• Return on invested capital at 6.7%, improved from the 6.6% earned in 2024 and largely unchanged from previous projections.
• Operating profits at $66.0 billion, improved from an estimated $61.9 billion in 2024, but down from the previously projected $67.5 billion.
• Total revenues at a record high of $979 billion (+1.3% on 2024, but below the $1 trillion previously projected).
• Total expenses at $913 billion (+1.0% on 2024, but below the previously projected $940 billion).
• Total traveler numbers reaching a record high 4.99 billion (+4% on 2024, but below the previously projected 5.22 billion).
• Total air cargo volumes reaching 69 million tonnes (+0.6% on 2024, but below the previously projected 72.5 million tonnes).

"The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets. Nonetheless, by many measures including net profits, it will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, although slightly below our previous projections. The biggest positive driver is the price of jet fuel which has fallen 13% compared with 2024 and 1% below previous estimates. Moreover, we anticipate airlines flying more people and more cargo in 2025 than they did in 2024, even if previous demand projections have been dented by trade tensions and falls in consumer confidence. The result is an improvement of net margins from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025. That's still about half the average profitability across all industries. But considering the headwinds, it's a strong result that demonstrates the resilience that airlines have worked hard to fortify," said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General.

Perspective

"Perspective is critical to put into context such large industry-wide aggregate figures. Earning a $36 billion profit is significant. But that equates to just $7.20 per passenger per segment. It's still a thin buffer and any new tax, increase in airport or navigation charge, demand shock or costly regulation will quickly put the industry's resilience to the test. Policymakers who rely on airlines as the core of a value chain that employs 86.5 million people and supports 3.9% of global economic activity, must keep this clearly in focus," said Walsh.

Outlook Drivers

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the traditional driver of airline economics. However, although global GDP growth is expected to fall from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, airline profitability is expected to improve. This is largely on the back of falling oil prices. Meanwhile, continued strong employment and moderating inflation projections are expected to keep demand growing, even if not as fast as previously projected.

Efficiency is another significant driver of the outlook. Passenger load factors are expected to reach an all-time high in 2025 with a full-year average of 84.0%, as fleet expansion and modernization remains challenging amid supply chain failures in the aerospace sector.

Overall, total revenues are expected to grow by 1.3%, outpacing a 1.0% increase in total expenses, shoring up industry profitability.

Revenue

Industry revenues are expected to reach a historic high of $979 billion in 2025 (+1.3% on 2024).

Passenger Revenues

Passenger revenues are expected to reach $693 billion in 2025 (+1.6% on 2024), an all-time high. This will be bolstered by an additional $144 billion in ancillary revenues (+6.7% on 2024).

Passenger growth (measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometers/RPK) is expected to be 5.8%—a significant normalization after the exceptional double-digit growth of the pandemic recovery.

It is expected that passenger yields will fall by 4.0% compared with 2024. This is largely reflective of the impact of lower oil prices and strong industry competition. This will continue the trend of travelers benefiting from ever-more affordable air travel. The real average return airfare (in 2024 US dollars) is expected to be $374 in 2025. This is 40% below 2014 levels.

IATA's April 2025 polling data supports projections for demand growth:

• Some 40% of respondents expect to travel more over the next 12 months than they did in the previous 12-month period. The majority (53%) said that they expect to travel as much as they did in the previous 12 months. Only 6% reported that they expect to travel less.
• Some 47% of respondents expect to spend more on travel over the next 12 months than they did in the previous 12 months. An almost equal proportion (45%) expect to spend the same on travel over the next 12 months while only 8% expect to spend less.
• Although 85% expected trade tensions to impact the economy in which they reside and 73% expect to be personally impacted, 68% of business travelers (50% of those polled) expected increased business travel amid trade tensions to visit customers, and 65% said trade tensions would have no impact on their travel habits.

Cargo Revenues

Cargo revenues are expected to be $142 billion in 2025 (-4.7% on 2024).

This is primarily based on the expected impact of reduced GDP growth largely influenced by trade-dampening protectionist measures, including tariffs. As a result, air cargo growth is expected to slow to 0.7% in 2025 (from 11.3% in 2024). The cargo yield is also expected to reduce by 5.2%, reflecting a combination of slower demand growth and lower oil prices.

Although significant uncertainty remains on how trade tensions will evolve over the year, as of April cargo demand was holding up well with a 5.8% year-on-year increase.

Expenses

Industry expenses are expected to grow to $913 billion in 2025 (+1.0% on 2024).

Jet fuel is expected to average $86/barrel in 2025 (well below the $99 average in 2024), translating into a total fuel bill of $236 billion, accounting for 25.8% of all operating costs. This is $25 billion lower than the $261 billion in 2024. Recent financial data show minimal fuel hedging activity over the past year, indicating that airlines will generally benefit from the reduced fuel cost. It is not expected that fuel will be impacted by trade tensions.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production is expected to grow to two million tonnes (Mt) in 2025, accounting for just 0.7% of airline fuel use. SAF production will double from the 1 Mt produced in 2024 (all of which was purchased by airlines), but production needs an exponential expansion to meet the demands of the industry's commitment to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

IATA estimates that the average cost of SAF in 2024 was 3.1 times that of jet fuel, for a total additional cost of $1.6 billion. In 2025, the global average cost for SAF is expected to be 4.2 times that of jet fuel. This extra cost is largely the result of SAF 'compliance fees' being levied by European fuel suppliers to hedge their potential costs as a result of European SAF mandates to include 2% SAF in the jet fuel supply.

"The behavior of fuel suppliers in fulfilling the SAF mandates is an outrage. The cost of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is estimated to be an enormous $4.7 trillion. Fuel suppliers must stop profiteering on the limited SAF supplies available and ramp up production to meet the legitimate needs of their customers," said Walsh.

The cost of the Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Airlines (CORSIA) to airlines is expected to reach $1 billion in 2025. The market for CORSIA credits will grow, but Guyana is the only country to have issued certificates for the high-quality credits that the scheme requires.

Fleet/Supply Chain

The aircraft backlog exceeds 17,000 (sharply up from the 10,000-11,000 pre-pandemic), with an implied wait time of 14 years. Should states exit from a multilateral agreement exempting aircraft from tariffs, supply chain constraints and production limitations could be further aggravated.

Supply chain issues have had significant negative impacts on airlines: driving-up leasing costs, increasing the average fleet age to 15 years (from 13 in 2015), cutting the fleet replacement rate to half the 5-6% of 2020, and reducing the efficiency of fleet utilization (using larger aircraft than needed on some routes, for example).

In 2025, 1,692 aircraft are expected to be delivered. Although this would mark the highest level since 2018, it is almost 26% lower than year-ago estimates. Further downward revisions are likely, given that supply chain issues are expected to persist in 2025 and possibly to the end of the decade.

Engine problems and a shortage of spare parts exacerbate the situation and have caused record-high groundings of certain aircraft types. The number of aircraft younger than 10 years in storage is currently more than 1,100, constituting 3.8% of the total fleet compared with 1.3% between 2015 and 2018. Nearly 70% of these grounded aircraft are equipped with PW1000G engines.

"Manufacturers continue to let their airline customers down. Every airline is frustrated that these problems have persisted so long. And indications that it could take until the end of the decade to fix them are off-the-chart unacceptable!" said Walsh.

Risks

With ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the most significant risks to the industry outlook include:

• Conflict:The resolution of conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war would have a benefit for airlines in reconnecting de-linked economies and reopening airspace. Conversely, any expansion of military activity could have a dampening effect.
• Trade tensions: Tariffs and prolonged trade wars dampen demand for air cargo and potentially travel. Additionally, the uncertainty over how the Trump Administration's trade policies will evolve could hold back critical business decisions that drive economic activity, and with it the demand for air cargo and business travel.
• Fragmentation: Global standards have always been critical for aviation. Fragmentation of global standards or weakening of multilateral institutions and agreements could bring additional costs to airlines with a more complex or unstable regulatory environment. This includes the evolution of policies on climate, trade, facilitation and a myriad of other matters impacting airline strategic decision-making and operations.
• Oil prices:Oil prices are a major driver of airline profitability. The complex array of factors impacting oil prices (including economic growth projections, the amount of extraction activity undertaken, policies on decarbonization, sanctions, availability of refining capacity, and transport blockages) can produce quick shifts in pricing volatility with significant impact on airline financial prospects.

Regional Roundup

All regions are expected to deliver collective net profits in 2025. Most will see their financial performance improve compared with 2024, with Latin America being the exception. Profitability, however, varies widely by carrier and by region. The collective net profit margin of African airlines is expected to be the weakest at 1.3% while carriers in the Middle East are forecast to be the strongest at 8.7%.

North America

North America will generate the highest absolute profit among the regions even as it is expected to be affected by a slowdown in the US economy, with increased tariffs likely to erode both consumer and business sentiment, dampening consumption and investment. The persistent shortage of pilots and engine reliability problems, particularly in the low-cost sector, will limit growth in the region.

Europe

Europe is expected to benefit from strong passenger demand, driven by growth in the low-cost sector. More of their aircraft fleet will return to service following engine-related grounding, and the EU's open skies agreements with North Africa will provide market opportunities. A stronger Euro will boost profitability for all carriers in the region with costs (such as fuel) mainly denominated in US dollars.

Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific is the largest market in terms of RPK, with China accounting for over 40% of the region's traffic. Passenger demand is expected to be strong given the relaxation in visa requirements in several Asian countries, particularly China, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. This will support both international tourism and travel within the region. However, the economic landscape poses some challenges, with the GDP forecast for the region, particularly China, having been revised down. Although flights between China and the United States are still limited to 100 weekly frequencies and significantly below pre-COVID levels, overcapacity issues are showing signs of improvement due to better fleet deployment between domestic and international travel.

Latin America

Latin America is home to some airlines that are thriving and others that are experiencing significant financial difficulties. The region's airlines continue to be impacted by weak domestic currencies as major cost items, such as fleet expenses and debt servicing, are paid in US dollars. Argentina's signing of open skies agreements with a number of countries is positive and will enhance connectivity and competition for the benefit of airlines and passengers. However, the proposed 26.5% VAT on tickets in Brazil could have a significant impact on the market. This is the only region to see profitability decrease compared with 2024.

Middle East

The Middle East will generate the highest net profit per passenger among the regions. Robust economic performance is supporting strong air travel demand, both for business and leisure travel. However, with delays in aircraft delivery, the region will see limitations in capacity as airlines embark on retrofit projects to modernize their fleet, hence limiting growth.

Africa

Africa's carriers face high operational costs and a low propensity for air travel expenditure in many of their home markets. A shortage of aircraft and spare parts is dampening growth in the region. The shortage of foreign currency in some economies, particularly US dollars, is adding to the region's challenges. Despite these challenges, there is sustained demand for air travel in Africa.

The Traveler's Viewpoint

Air travel delivers value to consumers. An April 2025 public opinion poll (commissioned by IATA covering 14 countries with 6,500 respondents who have taken at least one trip in the last 12 months) revealed that 97% of travelers expressed satisfaction with their travel (58% indicating they were highly satisfied). Moreover, 89% agreed that air travel makes their lives better, 81% appreciated the availability of choice in travel planning, and 78% agreed that air travel is good value for money.

Passengers are counting on a safe, sustainable, efficient, and profitable airline industry. IATA public opinion polling demonstrated the important role that travelers see the airline industry playing:

• 90% agreed that air travel is a necessity for modern life
• 90% agreed that air connectivity is critical to the economy
• 89% said that air travel has a positive impact on societies
• 82% said that the global air transport network is a key contributor to the UN Sustainable Development Goals
• 84% care about the success of the aviation industry
• 88% care about their ability to fly in the future

The air transport industry is committed to its goal of achieving net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Travelers are expressing high levels of confidence in this endeavor with 81% agreeing that the industry is demonstrating a commitment to work together to achieve this ambitious aim. Some 77% agreed that aviation leaders are taking the climate challenge seriously, significantly above the 64% recorded for government leaders and 60% for the oil sector.

> Willie Walsh's speech

> Global Outlook for Air Transport

> Fact Sheet - Industry Statistics (pdf)