In a federal Redbridge poll, the total vote for One Nation and the Coalition has been steady since late August at 50%, but Anthony Albanese's net favourability slumped ten points to a record low -27, possibly reflecting the Reserve Bank's interest rate hike last Tuesday.
Author
- Adrian Beaumont
Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The two other federal polls were both taken before the rate hike. The total right vote was down two points to 47% in Essential and at 48% in Morgan.
A Victorian Freshwater poll gave the Coalition a 53-47 lead over Labor after preferences. With under two months until the November 28 election, the Coalition is clearly ahead in all recent polls.
Federal Redbridge poll
A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted September 28 to October 2 from a sample of 1,000, gave One Nation 29% of the primary vote (up one since the late August Redbridge poll ), Labor 28% (down one), the Coalition 21% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one) and all Others 11% (up two).
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by an unchanged 52-48. The Coalition led Labor by 54-46, a two-point gain for the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor and the Coalition were tied 50-50, a two-point gain for the Coalition.
Albanese's net favourability slumped ten points to a record low -27 and Treasurer Jim Chalmers' was down nine points to -23. Pauline Hanson's was up two points to -10. Angus Taylor's was down three points to -6. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock's was -3.
In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 31% (steady), Hanson 26% (up two) and Taylor 15% (steady).
The right (One Nation and Coalition) led the left (Labor and Greens) on all the issues cited. They led by 43-26 on cost of living, 37-34 on healthcare, 39-26 on housing, 56-25 on immigration, 44-22 on crime and 44-26 on economic management. On all issues, there has been movement to the right since August .
Essential poll
A national Essential poll , conducted September 23-27 from a sample of 1,008, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (up three since the late August Essential poll), One Nation 25% (up two), the Coalition 22% (down four), the Greens 12% (down one), all Others 6% (steady) and undecided 6% (up one).
By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 48-46, reversing a 50-45 Coalition lead in August. No two-party estimate for Labor against One Nation was provided.
Applying 2025 election preference flows to the primary votes would give Labor above a 52-48 lead over the Coalition. Weak preference flows to Labor and a low Others vote are features of Essential polls.
Albanese's net approval was up four points to -17 (54% disapprove, 37% approve). Taylor's net approval was down three points to an equal record low -12 (43% disapprove, 31% approve).
By 46-39, respondents thought immigration was generally positive for the country, a reversal of a 45-41 generally negative lead in April. It's the most positive since November 2023. But 55% (up six since April) wanted Australia's immigration intake to decrease.
On gambling ads, 39% wanted a total ban, 25% restrictions during live sport and a ban on social media and online, 15% restrictions only during live sport and 11% no restrictions.
Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll , conducted September 14-27 from a sample of 2,569, gave Labor 26% of the primary vote, One Nation 25.5%, the Coalition 22.5%, the Greens 14.5% and all Others 11%.
By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53.5-46.5 and the Coalition by 52.5-47.5. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by Coalition by 52-48.
Previously, Morgan had released weekly results, but this poll aggregates the previously released September 14-20 poll and September 21-27, possibly to get bigger sample sizes for demographic breakdowns.
In the September 14-20 Morgan poll, One Nation had 25.5%, Labor 25%, the Coalition 21.5%, the Greens 15.5% and all Others 12.5%. So the sample taken September 21-27 was relatively good for Labor and the Coalition and bad for the Greens and Others.
Additional questions from DemosAU polls
In additional questions from the mid-September DemosAU federal poll, by 44-27 respondents thought superannuation exists to fund retirement, and people shouldn't be able to access it before age 60. But by 60-17, they thought people should be able to withdraw some of their super to fund a major purchase such as a housing deposit.
Respondents to a mid-June federal DemosAU poll were asked their opinions on Australian and international billionaires . Warren Buffett led with a +12 net positive score, followed by Andrew Forrest at +7, Gina Rinehart at +5 and Bill Gates at +1. Jeff Bezos was at -17, Rupert Murdoch at -22, Elon Musk at -23, Mark Zuckerberg at -25 and Clive Palmer at -35.
Victorian Freshwater poll
The Victorian election is on November 28. A Freshwater poll for The Herald Sun, conducted September 24-28 from a sample of 1,030, gave the Coalition 29% of the primary vote (down one since the Freshwater poll taken after Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier in late July).
Labor had 24% of the primary vote (down one), One Nation 22% (steady), the Greens 14% (steady) and all Others 11% (up two). The Coalition led Labor after preferences by 53-47, a one-point gain for the Coalition.
Carroll's net favourablility was steady at -7. Liberal leader Jess Wilson's was up one point to +19. In a two-way preferred premier question, Wilson led Carroll by 45-33 (previously 48-27). In a three-way question that included One Nation leader Warren Pickering, Wilson had 37%, Carroll 30% and Pickering 13%.
By 55-33, respondents thought it was time to give Wilson and the Coalition a chance to govern over "Labor has done enough to deserve re-election".
I've added this poll to the Victorian polls graph below. Since mid-September, there have been new polls from Freshwater, DemosAU, Redbridge and Resolve. There was clear movement to Labor in DemosAU, but the other three polls have shown little change.
The Coalition is clearly ahead of Labor after preferences in all recent polls. Right-wing parties are likely to win a majority of the 88 lower house seats. Seats going to One Nation could stop the Coalition winning a majority in its own right.
NZ election update
The New Zealand election is on November 7. I wrote for the NZ edition of The Conversation last Tuesday that the right-wing parties had a lead over the left-wing parties, with Opportunity a reasonable chance to hold the balance of power. The Greens surged four points to a record 16% in the latest Verian poll for 1News.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
