The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals . Many of these articles are available for early online access–they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form. Below are some recent examples of online and early-online research.
JOURNAL ARTICLES
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
New record for longest lightning "megaflash"–from the same storm that held a previous record. A lightning flash that occurred in the early hours of 22 October, 2017 and stretched from eastern Texas to near Kansas City, MO, has been certified by the World Meteorological Organization as the longest-distance lightning discharge ever recorded. The new record (829 km/515 mi) comes after a re-processing of Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) sensor data from onboard the GOES-16/17/18/19 satellites led to consideration of a previously overlooked flash. The storm that produced this flash was already famous for a 500+ km, former-record-holding lightning discharge, discussed in a seminal 2019 paper that helped introduce the term " megaflash ."
The Influence of Patterned Warming and CO2 on North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency
Journal of Climate
New projection method suggests less-frequent hurricanes later this century. While moderate evidence suggests North Atlantic hurricane intensity may increase in the future, models disagree on whether the storms will become more common. This paper finds that an index of the highest tropical sea temperatures (rather than average sea-surface temperatures), better predicts hurricane frequency. The authors' new model based on this premise suggests that hurricane frequency will decrease in the future.
Weather, Climate, and Society
China's National Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones (NECDZs) effectively reduce carbon emissions. Carbon emissions reduction is a primary goal of China's NECDZs–geographic areas in which focused efforts are made to promote resource conservation and environmental protection. This study, using city-level data from 2007 to 2023, finds that NECDZs significantly reduce carbon intensity, especially in highly marketized cities and newer, less industrial cities, due to collaboration among government, businesses, and the public.
Historical Warming and Drying in Colorado and Its Impact on Cool-Season Precipitation and Snow
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Colorado river water resources have already shifted since 2001. High-resolution data and modeling suggest that in the past 20 years, snowy days have become fewer and warm, and dry days have increased in the Gunnison River Basin—a major headwater of the Colorado River—leading to reduced snow and increased vaporization of snow into the air. Water resources now require careful management given the likelihood of more warming.
Weather, Climate, and Society
Large pay gaps undermine firms' adaptation to climate risks. Exposure to climate risk can spur efficiency and innovation, finds a new paper examining 4,530 Chinese A-share listed companies. Resource constraints caused many firms to be adaptive and efficient without reducing their innovativeness. However, this was less true for companies with large pay gaps between management and employees, perhaps because of less team cohesiveness.
Monthly Weather Review
More evidence of mismatches in tornado ratings. As noted recently, mismatches between the older Fujita (F) and newer Enhanced Fujita (EF) tornado wind scales raise questions about whether they are responsible for the so-called drought of EF5 tornadoes in recent years. This paper also finds that the EF scale classifies many more tornadoes as EF2, shrinking the proportion of what would have been deemed F3, F4, and F5 tornadoes—with the proportion of (E)F4–5 tornadoes at an all-time low. Tornadoes that managed an EF3 or EF4 rating in 2014–2023 have been noticeably deadlier than average for tornadoes rated F3 or F4.
Weather and Forecasting
Hourly fire forecasts possible. A proof-of-concept study has demonstrated the feasibility of creating an Hourly Wildfire Potential (HWP) index based on data from orbiting U.S. satellites and NOAA's operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Such an index, if operationalized, could not only assist planners, government, and land managers with managing fire risk but also shows promise for predicting smoke emissions.
*Federal atmospheric science research funding, facilities, staff, and infrastructure like satellites are currently threatened with elimination in the 2026 budget.
Drought Impacts on Firm Stock Returns: An Empirical Analysis Based on the NSPEI
Weather, Climate, and Society
Drought reduces stock returns in China. Data from publicly listed firms in China from 2010 to 2022 show that increased months of drought significantly reduce companies' stock returns. Firms with sufficient operating cash flow, highly subsidized firms, firms in non-water-dependent industries, and firms in high-GDP regions were less affected.
Weather, Climate, and Society
It matters that weather warning sources agree. Study participants in the Southeastern U.S. were more likely to perceive tornado threat information as credible when multiple different sources had consistent messages (such as the National Weather Service and their TV meteorologist). "Social mediarologists" received the largest credibility bump if their messages lined up with other sources. A positive perception of the NWS made participants more inclined to take protective actions in response to a warning.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Urban areas amplify heat extremes in Chinese megacities; reflective roofs may provide relief. Analysis of four major urban clusters in China finds that the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events are amplified in urban areas by 20%–30%. The authors simulated the impacts of certain cooling interventions, and found that highly reflective roofs were most effective, reducing average daily temperature by 0.30°C, surpassing green roofs (0.16°C) and urban irrigation (0.22°C).
Weather, Climate, and Society
Major summer temperature swings increase depression symptoms among Chinese adults. The authors found that temperature variation (TV) during the summer months–which may increase with global warming–appeared to increase depression symptoms among middle-aged and elderly adults in China once a certain magnitude of variation (around 3°C) was reached. This effect was independent of the duration of heat waves. "Summer TV shock" also increased the odds of developing a depressive disorder. Smaller temperature swings did not have a significant effect.
Earth Interactions
Southwest U.S. ecosystems reveal climate-related causes for fire increase. Data from Arizona and New Mexico from 1984–2021 reveal that ecosystem-specific climate responses are driving an increase in wildfire activity–important information for mitigating risks. In conifer forests, drought drives larger and more severe fires; in shrub- and grasslands, fluctuating wet and dry, warm periods drive vegetation growth followed by fires that consume the increased vegetation. The risk is especially heightened by the spread of invasive grasses into shrublands and deserts, providing more area for fires to burn.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Summer monsoon brings air pollution to high latitudes, affecting climate and weather. Aircraft observations have determined that the Asian summer monsoon plays a key role in transporting air pollution and moisture from Southeast Asia into high-latitude regions like Alaska and Germany via the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. Aerosols like ammonium nitrate, and even short-lived chlorinated compounds, are transported. This impacts ozone depletion, atmospheric radiation, and possibly even cloud formation in the high latitudes.
AI WEATHER PREDICTION UPDATES:
Using data from previous forecasts for parts of the U.S. and Europe, a new forecasting framework integrating physics-based numerical modeling with the AI-driven Pangu-Weather model proved able to reduce prediction errors by 46% for temperature and 23% for wind speed, compared with the most advanced forecasting models currently in operation.
Combining complementary datasets using machine learning can improve short-term severe hazard guidance, according to a study combining data from the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS, a convection-allowing model ensemble that rapidly assimilates high-resolution radar, satellite, and other observational data) and the ProbSevere Version 2 (PS2) set of statistical models. The new algorithm is now moving into a testing phase with real-time forecasting.
You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org .
About the American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/ .
About AMS Journals
The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals . Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , Weather, Climate, and Society , the Journal of Climate , and Monthly Weather Review .
