The S&P/ASX 200 finished 2025 higher, but the year delivered sharply different outcomes across sectors and companies. New survey results released today by the Australian Shareholders' Association (ASA) show retail investors are entering 2026 with broadly steady confidence, while calling on ASX boards to tighten discipline, starting with executive pay outcomes that reflect realised performance and stronger capital allocation.
Rotations
In 1H25 the ASX 200 rose +4.7%, led by Financials (+10.6%), Industrials (+8.8%) and Communication Services (+13.9%).
In 2H25 it added ~+2.0%, but capital rotated to Materials (+33.9%) as investors reduced higher-valuation growth exposure, with Information Technology (-25.4%) and Health Care (-19.0%) falling sharply amid firmer commodities and a softer US dollar.
Key highlights
- S&P/ASX 200 up 6.80% in 2025 to 8,714.3 (price return, dividends excluded). Comparison point: 8,159.1 (end of 2 January 2025.)
- Best sector: Materials +31.71%. Weakest sector: Health Care –24.91%.
- Top ASX 200 stock: Liontown Resources (LTR) +198%. Bottom: HMC Capital (HMC) -59%.
What retail investors are saying as 2025 ends
ASA is releasing the results of its retail investor sentiment survey as the market closes out 2025.
How investors feel about investing in Australian shares over the next 12 months (n=124)
- "About the same": 76.61%
- "More confident": 12.10%
- "Less confident": 11.29%
The one thing investors most want ASX 200 boards to do better in 2026
- "Remuneration that aligns with realised performance": 37.90%
- "Better capital allocation discipline (dividends, buybacks, acquisitions and dilution)": 19.35%
- "Board effectiveness (chair leadership, capability and engagement)": 17.74%
- "Stronger accountability": 16.94%
- "Clearer disclosure and transparency (including cash flow and key drivers)": 8.06%
From ASA CEO, Rachel Waterhouse
"Retail investors are not asking for perfection, they are asking for discipline: pay for realised performance and capital allocation decisions that protect and build shareholder value."
What investors are watching in 2026
Common themes raised by respondents included:
- Rates, inflation and the economic outlook: "Interest rates." "Inflation and interest rates." "Macro situation."
- Global and US political and market risks: "US economy and Trump moves" "The US market under Trump." "Geopolitical trends"
- Boards, governance and disclosure quality: "Company governance and chair effectiveness" "Board members accountability" "level of disclosure"
- Sector themes, especially resources, commodities and energy: "Miners" "Volatility of oil, gas and iron ore stock." "The price of gold and copper."
- AI and tech cycle risk: "artificial intelligence (AI)" "Potential ai crash" "The hype around AI…"
What 2025 reinforced for investors
Common themes raised by respondents included:
- Volatility and uncertainty: "Volatilty is here to stay" "How unpredictable the sharemarket is." "Expect the unexpected…"
- Discipline and patience: "Patience and time in market." "Time in the market." "Stay the course…"
- Long term focus over hype: "Investing is for the long term" "Beware of market enthusiasms"
- Diversification and monitoring: "Diversify" "Stay diversified." "Monitor your portfolio carefully"
- Governance matters: "Inadequate corporate governance…" "poor governance can crash a company reputation and financial viability." "Company boards need to be more accountable"
Top 5 and bottom 5 stocks (ASX 200)
Top 5 performers
- Liontown Resources (LTR) +198% Takeover interest and rebound in lithium prices in the second half of the year.
- Genesis Minerals (GMD) +194% Strong production growth and soaring gold price.
- Catalyst Metals (CYL) +186% Smaller producer, soaring gold price.
- Evolution Mining (EVN) +163% Strong cash flow generation from its copper-gold portfolio and rising gold and copper prices.
- Newmont Corp (NEM) + 150% Soaring gold price and synergies after the Newcrest merger.
Bottom 5 performers
- HMC Capital (HMC) -59% Leverage concerns and post-IPO re-rating.
- IDP Education (IEL) -54% Student visa policy tightening and caps.
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) -53% US channel pressure and softer China demand.
- Telix Phamaceuticals (TLX) -53%
Trial timing uncertainty and US litigation risk.
- Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) -47%
