A combination of stronger global beef markets, favourable seasonal conditions in key Australian beef-producing regions and higher local cattle inventory is supporting record-breaking production volumes, according to a new research report by agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank.
In its Q3 2025 Global Beef Quarterly, the bank's RaboResearch division says second quarter Australian cattle slaughter numbers were up 10 per cent year-on-year (YOY) and with heavier carcass weights, this meant production volumes were up 11 per cent YOY for the quarter, setting a new record.
June was a new record volume for Australian beef exports at 134,596 tonnes shipped weight (swt), but volumes in July jumped a further 11 per cent to 150,435 tonnes swt – the highest monthly volume ever recorded.
Report lead author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said export volumes for the year to the end of July were up 17 per cent, with volumes to the US up 23 per cent, China up 43 per cent and South Korea up nine per cent. Japan was one of the few markets with a contraction, down 14 per cent.
"Given current Australian cattle inventory and seasonal conditions, we believe production volumes will continue at current levels, allowing exports to maintain their strong volumes," he said.
Mr Gidley-Baird said the Australian market waits to see the impact of additional US tariffs on Brazil and whether that reduces Brazilian exports to the US and results in increased demand for Australian product.
Global outlook
The Rabobank report said geopolitics and seasonal conditions are shaping global beef trade flows.
"Global cattle prices keep rising as global production volumes are contracting," Mr Gidley-Baird said.
"Imports from Brazil into the US were up 107 per cent compared to last year in the first half of 2025, but higher tariffs will have a material impact on the trade between Brazil and the US," he said. "In Europe, the tight market is also attracting higher imports."
Global prices
Global cattle prices all continued their rise through quarter two, the report said.
"Northern hemisphere countries continue to stand out at record prices," Mr Gidley-Baird said. "But prices in the US and Canada moderated in July, suggesting some of the heat is going out of the market."
Meanwhile, he said, prices in southern hemisphere countries continue to increase.
"The reduced volumes of beef in the North American market, plus what appears to be a slight improvement in the Chinese market have generated stronger demand for southern hemisphere beef suppliers. This demand is now flowing through to cattle prices."
Production contracting
Led by contractions in Europe, New Zealand and US, global beef production continued to decline into quarter two, with total volumes down in the first half of the year, Mr Gidley-Baird said.
"Australia and China have increased production in the first half of the year, compared to 2024," he said.
"RaboResearch analysts believe that production is likely to continue following these trends with an overall contraction of two per cent expected for 2025."
US tariffs and Brazil's beef trade
Mr Gidley-Baird said the latest round of US tariffs included an additional 40 per cent on the already existing 10 per cent and 26.4 per cent on Brazilian beef imports.
"Brazil supplied a record volume of beef into the US in the first half of 2025 and RaboResearch believes this additional tariff will have a material impact on the trade between Brazil and the US," he said.
"But nearly a month after the US began applying further import tariffs on Brazilian beef, shipments to the US have remained relatively stable even after the tariffs have taken effect."
"Projections of rising live cattle prices in Brazil for the second half of the year may explain the current appetite from American importers for Brazilian beef, but RaboResearch believes the volume the US imports from Brazil may drop an estimated 10,000 tonnes to 15,000 tonnes per month as we progress through the remainder of the year."
Changes in cuts
Mr Gidley-Baird said the main challenge with declining volumes to the US lies in operational adjustments at processing plants.
"Consumers in Brazil prefer hindquarter cuts, making the export markets a valuable outlet for processors. The US is Brazil's largest buyer of trimmings, and redirecting this volume to other markets would require changes in how cuts are processed," he said. "Markets like China, the Middle East and Egypt have historically been major importers of forequarter cuts from Brazil."
RaboResearch Disclaimer: Please refer to Australian RaboResearch disclaimer here
