Media reports confirm that this week the Australian Government will announce our national 2035 emissions reduction target (or climate target) and finalise our second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
This briefing paper outlines the science, policy and political context.
A weaker target mean higher risks, more damage and costs for Australia
- The National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) shows Australians are already in harm's way, and that climate risks will rise sharply without deeper cuts to climate pollution.
- So far in 2025, Australian communities have endured back-to-back flooding in NSW and Queensland, unprecedented marine heatwaves devastating reefs in WA and Queensland, and worsening drought across southern Australia affecting agricultural land.
- Weaker targets mean more climate-fuelled disasters, driving up costs. If pollution levels remain high, disasters are expected to cost the economy $110 billion a year by 2060, while one in 10 homes will be uninsurable by 2100.
Those advocating for any target that would see global heating pass beyond 2°C should clearly articulate their fully costed plans to support, relocate and protect vulnerable Australian communities through unparalleled social and economic displacement and upheaval.
Beyond 2°C, the NCRA warns of escalating risks of abrupt, irreversible changes (or "tipping points") that could push Australian ecosystems and communities past their limits:
A stronger target delivers more jobs & investment, and fewer disasters
- Recent modelling by Deloitte found that a 75% cut to climate pollution (on 2005 levels) over the next decade would deliver a $370 billion boost to Australia's GDP within the next decade and leave Australia almost half a trillion dollars better off by 2050 compared to a weaker target.
- Deloitte modelling also shows at least 69,000 new jobs, compared to our current trajectory, created by 2035 under a stronger target, with new opportunities in clean industries like green metals, renewable energy, and critical minerals.
- The NCRA shows climate harms escalate sharply with every fraction of a degree. Stronger cuts mean fewer deadly heatwaves, less flooding of homes and farmland, and reduced pressure on health and emergency services.
It's necessary and realistic for the Aust Govt to be doing much more
- Independent pathways - including Climate Analytics, Climate Council, the CSIRO and Climateworks - consistently demonstrate that targets of 75% and above by 2035 are feasible.
- Australia is well positioned to make deep and rapid cuts to climate pollution across our economy: with a skilled workforce, ample land and critical mineral resources. We're the sunniest country in the world, and one of the windiest.
- With existing policies alone, Australia is on track to cut climate pollution by 51% by 2035.
Most Australians and experts back a stronger 2035 target of -75%+
- A majority of Australians support setting a stronger target.
- When surveyed on their preferred policy approach, two-thirds of Australians called for a 2035 target of 75% or above.
- Most organisations (see below) that publicly named a desired target called for between a 75% reduction and net zero. This includes unions, businesses, social service organisations, community and religious groups, and climate/environment organisations.
What Australia does, matters
- Australia is one of the world's biggest polluters on a per person basis, and the largest coal exporter. What we do sends a signal — to our allies, our trading partners, and our kids.
- Stronger action also strengthens our credibility with Pacific neighbours, where climate is central to regional security, and in international negotiations.
- Every time we wave through another polluting coal and gas project, it makes progress anywhere more difficult. The Albanese Government has approved 31 fossil fuel projects so far.
- Put simply, the starting point for our 2035 emissions reduction target could be up to two percentage points higher (i.e. closer to net zero), had the Albanese Government followed the clear scientific basis and stopped approving new and extended fossil fuel production. The CCA has indicated it is considering its target advice on a 'line-by-line' basis, suggesting that the Albanese Government's approvals are likely to weigh on its advice.
Other countries are setting strong, national targets
- The UK's target is 81% by 2035 on 1990 levels (equates to about 78% on 2005 levels). The last coal-fired power station in the UK closed last year.
- Canada has cut its coal generation from 58% in 2010 to now less than 5%, and is on track to completely phase out coal generation by 2030. To be comparable to Canada's 2035 NDC (which excludes the land sector), Australia would need a target of 74-78%.
- Norway's target is 70-75 % below 1990 levels, excluding the land sector. (equates to about 72–76% on 2005 levels). Norway is already at 98% renewable, completely ended coal generation this year and is a world leader in EV sales.
- Major economies are already charging ahead:
- More than half of the US economy - led by states like California - remain committed to net zero.
- China's pollution is falling years earlier than expected due to massive renewable investment. China has indicated that its 2035 climate target will be significantly stronger than previous targets, covering all sectors and greenhouse gases.
References and resources
Climate Council's National Climate Risk Assessment briefing paper
Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia's 2035 Climate Target Matters
About us:
The Climate Council is Australia's leading community-funded climate change communications organisation. We provide authoritative, expert and evidence-based advice on climate change to journalists, policymakers, and the wider Australian community.
