Calm Hurricane Season Predicted, Uncertainty Remains

Mimi Taylor typically spends weekends grocery shopping, but on one recent early Saturday morning, the 52-year-old Liberty City resident visited a local hardware store instead, filling a handheld basket with flashlights, batteries, a portable weather radio, and a first aid kit. 

Hurricane season was still more than a week away. But after experiencing the devastation wrought by Andrew nearly 35 years ago, Taylor has always made it a priority to be prepared, "no matter what the months ahead have in store," she said. 

She is echoing the sentiments of forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), who recently issued their outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, which runs June 1 to Nov. 30. 

"Even though we're expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it's very important to understand that it only takes one," NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs said. "We have had Category 5s make landfall in the past during below-average seasons." 

The agency is forecasting a total of eight to 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

It is NOAA's first below-average season forecast in more than a decade and is being driven by a developing El Niño, a weather pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that increases upper-level vertical wind shear across the Atlantic, making it harder for storms to develop and intensify. This year, many forecasters are calling for a strong and even intense record-setting El Niño. 

"But we need to be sober in our forecasts," said Ben Kirtman, a professor of atmospheric sciences and dean of the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, pointing out that other meteorological factors, besides a strong El Niño, will play a role in how quiet or busy this Atlantic hurricane season will be. 

One of those factors: The North Atlantic Subtropical High, also known as the Bermuda High. A semi-permanent, high-pressure system that hovers over the Atlantic Ocean, the high acts as a massive steering mechanism for tropical storms and hurricanes. And its impact on a storm's track depends heavily on its positioning. 

"When the high expands westward toward the U.S., it creates a wall that blocks hurricanes from turning out to sea, forcing them into the Caribbean, the Gulf, or toward the U.S. East Coast," Kirtman explained. "When the system is weaker or shifted further to the east, it creates a 'break' in the steering flow, allowing storms to recurve northward and then northeastward, keeping them out to sea and away from the U.S. mainland." 

The timing of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, is also at play, Kirtman pointed out. The eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days can have a noticeable impact on hurricane seasons. "If the timing of the enhanced wet phase of the MJO coincides with hurricane season, then we could expect more storm activity," he said.

But it is warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic that could be the deciding factor in how many hurricanes form this season. 

"If it's significant shear, it's probably going to cancel out a lot of the ocean heat," said Lynn "Nick" Shay, a professor in the Rosenstiel School's Department of Ocean Sciences. "But if the shear gets down to just moderate levels, it could very well be that the warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures win out and offset the shear effect. Still, it only takes one storm at the wrong place to be devastating." 

And that is why forecasters and researchers continue to drive home the point that uncertainty still exists in how each hurricane season unfolds. "Very strong hurricanes can and do form during El Niño. Just the overall activity is typically somewhat reduced," said Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate and tropical cyclone expert at the Rosenstiel School. 

He pointed out that the last few hurricane seasons with at least a moderate El Niño in place occurred in 1982, 2002, 2009, 2015, and 2023. "Of those, only 2023 saw above-average activity that was fueled by record-smashing warm ocean temperatures across the tropical Atlantic, enough to counteract the effect of a strong El Niño," McNoldy said. 

NOAA's prediction of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season due to El Niño's influence then "does not mean that residents should let their guard down," Shay said. 

Which is why Liberty City resident Taylor has prepared early. "I've still got sandbags to buy, and my husband is considering purchasing a generator," she said. "I read about the forecasts, but the terminology like El Niño sounds strange to me. I don't know much about it, just that I'll be ready when the season starts."

Forecasters noted: 

• A very strong El Niño occurs when the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region (part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean) is +2.0 degrees Celsius or greater. "That is somewhat rare, but the last few times it occurred were the winters of 2023-24 (+2.1 degrees Celsius), 2015-16 (+2.8 degrees Celsius), 1997-98 (+2.4 degrees Celsius), and 1982-83 (+2.2 degrees Celsius)," said Rosenstiel School tropical cyclone expert Brian McNoldy. "The latest consensus outlook for this hurricane season is comparable to the 1982-83 value, then possibly increasing to the 1997-98 level by this coming winter. In general, a strong El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, and that should be one of the dominant influences throughout the season." 
• NOAA's outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns.
• While the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be quieter due to El Niño, the weather pattern will have the opposite effect in the central Pacific basin. Forecasters with NOAA's National Weather Service are predicting a70 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season for the central Pacific this year.