The Government of Canada has released its annual global mean temperature forecast, providing early insight into expected global temperature conditions for 2026. Following record-breaking global heat in 2023 and 2024 and a comparably warm 2025, global temperatures are expected to remain at historically high levels.
Environment and Climate Change Canada's latest global mean temperature forecast indicates that 2026 will likely be among the hottest years on record, comparable to 2023 and 2025 and approaching 2024, which remains the warmest year ever observed. Based on current modelling, the global mean temperature in 2026 is predicted to fall in the range of 1.35 °C and 1.53 °C above pre-industrial levels, meaning that global temperatures will remain at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 13th consecutive year. Looking ahead, Canada's long-term forecasts indicate that the period from 2026 to 2030 will likely be the hottest five-year period on record.
Produced by Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, the forecast is based on a made-in-Canada climate prediction system that provides early insight into expected global temperature conditions. This means that governments, industry, and communities can use this data with confidence while planning for the impacts of a warming climate.
To address the drivers of rising global temperatures, the Government of Canada is taking action to reduce emissions. This includes measures outlined in Budget 2025 and the Climate Competitiveness Strategy-such as the enhanced oil and gas methane and landfill methane regulations announced last month-strengthening our industrial carbon markets and cementing Canada as a clean energy superpower. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions protects human health and reduces climate impacts while supporting economic growth. These efforts help strengthen communities, protect the environment, and support Canada's transition to a cleaner and more competitive economy.
As global warming continues to affect people, communities, and infrastructure across Canada and around the world, access to reliable climate data supports informed planning and decision-making that helps protect Canadians and the places they call home. Taking action to prepare for and prevent the impacts of climate change is not just a moral obligation, it is an economic imperative. Building climate resilience is economically smart, fiscally responsible, and essential to protecting Canadians for generations to come.
