Career pressure - not ideology - causes military officers to protect or overthrow dictators. New research from the Department of Political Science shows that ambition and anxiety can transform 'ordinary men' into the regime's ruthless henchmen - or into those who bury the regime.
Why do some people become the dictators' most brutal agents? And why do others overthrow them in a coup? The new research published in the book 'Making a Career in Dictatorship: The Secret Logic behind Repression and Coups' offers a surprising answer: it is not about fanaticism or sadism - but about the fear that one's own career is stalling.
'We show that even the most extreme actions in authoritarian regimes often stem from banal career anxiety,' says Adam Scharpf, associate professor at the University of Copenhagen.
The book, which he co-authored with Christian Gläßel (Researcher at the Hertie School in Berlin), is based on unique career data on 15,000 officers in the Argentine military, and it offers in-depth case studies on officers in Hitler's Germany, Stalin's Soviet Union and Jawara's Gambia, as well as numerous historical pieces of evidence from other authoritarian regime around the world.
According to last year's Nobel Laureate in Economics, James A. Robinson, it is "an intellectual milestone".
The dark side of meritocracy
The two researchers document a recurring pattern: when their careers stagnate, people working in the regime apparatus choose one of two strategies. Either 'detouring' - joining units tasked with repression to demonstrate their value to the sitting ruler - or 'forcing' - participating in coups to secure a better future under a new leader.
'It is not only the leader's inner circle that determines the character and fate of a regime. The career anxiety of those on the middle and lower layers can be enough to trigger both violence and regime collapse,' explains Adam Scharpf.
One of the book's most provocative points is that meritocracy - usually seen as a hallmark of stable democracies where qualifications and performance decide over who obtains higher positions and power - does not protect against authoritarianism. On the contrary, professional, performance-oriented systems drive those who ultimately lose out to make extreme decisions.
'We tend to believe that bureaucratic professionalism is a safeguard against dictatorship. However, our research shows that it can be a driving force behind human rights violations and illegal power grabs,' says Adam Scharpf.
It also applies to today's democracies
The book's main findings are highly relevant in today's world. In a time of declining democracy and increasing populism, the researchers are observing similar dynamics in countries that were once considered unassailable.
As examples, Adam Scharpf points to ICE and the FBI in the United States, where personnel cuts and new recruitment schemes create precisely the career pressures that can lead to the abuse of power.
'Wherever leaders try to consolidate power or search for committed allies to flip a system, the career logic is at play. This is not only true for the military and state apparatus, but also for terrorist organizations, criminal networks, and even companies, he notes.
The book 'Making a Career in Dictatorship: The Secret Logic behind Repression and Coups' will be published by Oxford University Press on February 13, 2026.
