Bougainville, an autonomous archipelago currently part of Papua New Guinea, is determined to become the world's newest country.
Author
- Anna-Karina Hermkens
Senior Lecturer and Researcher, Anthropology, Macquarie University
To support this process, it's offering foreign investors access to a long-shuttered copper and gold mine. Formerly owned by the Australian company Rio Tinto, the Panguna mine caused displacement and severe environmental damage when it operated between 1972 and 1989 .
It also sparked a decade-long civil war from 1988 to 1998 that killed an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 civilians and caused enduring traumas and divisions.
Industry players believe 5.3 million tonnes of copper and 547 tonnes of gold remain at the site. This is attracting foreign interest, including from China.
Australia views Bougainville as strategically important to " inner security arc ". The main island is about 1,500 kilometres from Queensland's Port Douglas.
Given this, the possibility of China's increasing presence in Bougainville raises concerns about shifting allegiances and the potential for Beijing to exert greater influence over the region.
Australia's tangled history in Bougainville
Bougainville is a small island group in the South Pacific with a population of about 300,000 . It consists of two main islands: Buka in the north and Bougainville Island in the south.
Bougainville has a long history of unwanted interference from outsiders, including missionaries, plantation owners and colonial administrations (German, British, Japanese and Australian).
Two weeks before Papua New Guinea received its independence from Australia in 1975, Bougainvilleans sought to split away, unilaterally declaring their own independence . This declaration was ignored in both Canberra and Port Moresby, but Bougainville was given a certain degree of autonomy to remain within the new nation of PNG.
The opening of the Panguna mine in the 1970s further fractured relations between Australia and Bougainville. Landowners opposed the environmental degradation and limited revenues they received from the mine. The influx of foreign workers from Australia, PNG and China also led to resentment. Violent resistance grew, eventually halting mining operations and expelling almost all foreigners.
Under the leadership of Francis Ona, the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA) fought a long civil war to restore Bougainville to Me'ekamui, or the "Holy Land" it once was.
Australia supported the PNG government's efforts to quell the uprising with military equipment, including weapons and helicopters .
After the war ended, Australia helped broker the Bougainville Peace Agreement in 2001. Although aid programs have since begun to heal the rift between Australia and Bougainville, many Bougainvilleans feel Canberra continues to favour PNG's territorial integrity.
In 2019, Bougainvilleans voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum . Australia's response, however, was ambiguous .
Despite a slow and frustrating ratification process, Bougainvilleans remain adamant they will become independent by 2027 .
As Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama, a former BRA commander, told me in 2024:
We are moving forward. And it's the people's vision: independence. I'm saying, no earlier than 2025, no later than 2027. My benchmark is 2026, the first of September. I will declare. No matter what happens. I will declare independence on our republican constitution.
Major issues to overcome
Bougainville leaders see the reopening of Panguna mine as key to financing independence. Bougainville Copper Limited, the Rio Tinto subsidiary that once operated the mine, backs this assessment.
The Bougainville Autonomous Government has built its own gold refinery and hopes to create its own sovereign wealth fund to support independence. The mine would generate much-needed revenue, infrastructure and jobs for the new nation.
But reopening the mine would also require addressing the ongoing environmental and social issues it has caused. These include polluted rivers and water sources, landslides, flooding, chemical waste hazards, the loss of food security, displacement, and damage to sacred sites.
Many of these issues have been exacerbated by years of small-scale alluvial mining by Bougainvilleans themselves, eroding the main road into Panguna.
Some also worry reopening the mine could reignite conflict , as landowners are divided about the project. Mismanagement of royalties could also stoke social tensions.
Violence related to competition over alluvial mining has already been increasing at the mine.
More broadly, Bougainville is faced with widespread corruption and poor governance .
The Bougainville government cannot deal with these complex issues on its own. Nor can it finance the infrastructure and development needed to reopen the mine. This is why it's seeking foreign investors .
Open for business
Historically, China has a strong interest in the region. According to Pacific researcher Anna Powles , Chinese efforts to build relationships with Bougainville's political elite have increased over the years.
Chinese investors have offered development packages contingent on long-term mining revenues and Bougainville's independence. Bougainville is showing interest .
Patrick Nisira, the minister for commerce, trade, industry and economic development, said last year the proposed Chinese infrastructure investment is "aligning perfectly with Bougainville's nationhood aspirations".
The government has also reportedly made overtures to the United States , offering a military base in Bougainville in return for support reopening the mine.
Given American demand for minerals, Bougainville could very well end up in the middle of a battle between China and the US over influence in the new nation, and thus in our region.
Which path will Bougainville and Australia take?
There is support in Bougainville for a future without large-scale mining . One minister, Geraldine Paul, has been promoting the islands' booming cocoa industry and fisheries to support an independent Bougainville.
The new nation will also need new laws to hold the government accountable and protect the people and culture of Bougainville. As Paul told me in 2024:
[…]the most important thing is we need to make sure that we invest in our foundation and that's building our family and culture. Everything starts from there.
What happens in Bougainville affects Australia and the broader security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. With September 1 2026 just around the corner, it is time for Australia to intensify its diplomatic and economic relationships with Bougainville to maintain regional stability.
Anna-Karina Hermkens receives funding from the Australian Research Council to follow and analyse Bougainville's journey towards independence.
