Efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 °C could unintentionally place growing pressure on the world's food supply, according to a new perspective published in Environmental and Biogeochemical Processes. The analysis warns that climate commitments relying heavily on afforestation and other land-based carbon removal strategies may reduce global cropland by 12.8% by 2100.
"Climate action is essential, but climate policies must not create a new crisis by weakening the land systems that support global food production," said corresponding author Shaokun Li. "We need mitigation strategies that protect both the climate and food security, especially in vulnerable developing regions."
The authors examined findings from recent integrated assessment and high-resolution land system modeling. They found that cropland losses would be unevenly distributed. Countries in the Global South could experience an average loss of 13.0%, while South America could face a decline of 23.7%. Europe may lose approximately 440,000 square kilometers of cropland, the largest absolute regional reduction.
The impacts could extend far beyond local farms. Major agricultural exporters are also projected to lose cropland, including Brazil, the United States, and Argentina. Reduced production and export capacity could increase food prices and leave import-dependent countries exposed to both domestic shortages and disruptions in international supply.
To address these risks, the authors recommend balancing ecological restoration with cropland protection, improving agricultural productivity without disadvantaging small farmers, reducing trade barriers, and establishing emergency food reserves and price stabilization mechanisms. They also call for more detailed land system models that account for national policies, dietary changes, extreme weather, and differences among local communities.
Most importantly, the paper argues that governments should avoid excessive dependence on land-based carbon removal. Faster decarbonization of energy systems offers a more secure path for meeting climate goals without intensifying competition between forests and farms.
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Journal reference: Chen X, Li S, Tu B, Wang L, He W, et al. 2026. Ambitious climate pledges threaten global cropland: a 12.8% reduction projected by 2100 under a 1.5 °C pathway. Environmental and Biogeochemical Processes 2: e015 doi: 10.48130/ebp-0026-0010
https://www.maxapress.com/article/doi/10.48130/ebp-0026-0010
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About the Journal:
Environmental and Biogeochemical Processes (e-ISSN 3070-1708) is a multidisciplinary platform for communicating advances in fundamental and applied research on the interactions and processes involving the cycling of elements and compounds between the biological, geological, and chemical components of the environment.
