Social scientists at Northwestern University comment on Russia's stepped-up drone attacks on Ukraine ahead of Victory Day, the May 9 holiday commemorating the Soviet Union's triumph over Nazi Germany. Russia's attacks followed alleged Ukrainian drone strike attempts near Putin's Moscow residence last week.
Who is responsible for the drone attack near Putin's residence?
Quote from Professor William Reno
"My take is that it's a higher probability it was a staged attack (firecrackers over the Kremlin) as a pretext for a Russian decision to escalate the conflict. That likely would take the form of attacks on Ukraine's political leadership. Putin has threatened such action. These developments are unfolding against a backdrop of what are most certainly Ukrainian aerial attacks on energy infrastructure inside Russia and in Russian-held parts of Ukraine.
"My concern is a change in the patterns of Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian targets. This could take the form of targeting Ukraine's leadership. Or it could mean targeting the shipment of western weapons after they have crossed the border into Ukraine. Either would mark a significant escalation of the conflict, the latter perhaps more so because it would be a step closer to direct contact with NATO forces."
