- Limited revisions to headline inflation expectations for 2023-25; longer-term expectations unchanged; core inflation expectations revised down for 2024-2025 and longer-term
- Real GDP growth expectations slightly down for 2023 and 2024, but unchanged thereafter
- Profile of unemployment rate expectations down slightly
In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2023, respondents made limited revisions to their expectations for headline inflation measured in terms of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for 2023 to 2025. Headline HICP inflation was expected to decline from 5.6% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Expectations for 2023 were revised upward by 0.1 percentage points, those for 2024 were unchanged, and those for 2025 were revised downward by 0.1 percentage points. The upward revisions in the short term reportedly reflected recent oil price developments. Core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, was revised downward for 2024, 2025 and the longer term. Longer-term expectations for headline HICP inflation were unchanged at 2.1%.
Expectations for real GDP growth were revised down slightly for 2023 and 2024. Respondents expected GDP growth of 0.5% in 2023, 0.9% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. The expectations for 2023 and 2024 were revised downward by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively, while expectations for 2025 were unchanged compared to the previous round. Respondents' short-term GDP expectations imply a sluggish second half of 2023, with economic activity picking up over the first half of 2024.
The expected profile of the unemployment rate has been revised down slightly over the entire horizon by around 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous round. Respondents expected unemployment rates of 6.5%, 6.7% and 6.6% in 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively. The longer-term expectation for the unemployment rate (2028) was 6.5%.
