AMES, Iowa - In recent decades, a curious trend in the collective relationship status of Americans has emerged: When education levels rise in the U.S., the nation's marriage rates fall.
Quick look
Marriage rates have now reached historic lows in the United States, especially among young people. At the same time, college education levels have increased considerably. Are these trends related? New research from an Iowa State University economics professor has identified a causal link between education and marriage - but it's a nuanced one.
At first glance, it might seem like higher learning has been cutting in on marriage and stealing more than one dance. But when Iowa State University researchers took a closer look, they discovered the story is a bit more complicated. While broad patterns show education is delaying when Americans marry, recent data across populations also reveals that people with more education are often more likely to be married.
How can both be true?
"In our research, we found that education changes more than just a person's resume - it also shifts their opportunities, timelines and expectations," says John V. Winters, professor of economics at Iowa State and co-author of the new study, "Causal effects of education on marriage," published by Education Economics.
The study's findings, Winters says, reveal that education changes how people see their future, both professionally and personally.
"From expanding career opportunities to increasing independence, education reshapes what we look for in a partner, as well as when we're ready to commit and whether we want to marry at all," Winters says.
"Some people may feel they've gained the freedom to wait for the right match, while others may use that same sense of freedom to follow a path that doesn't include marriage. And some people may find that education makes them more attractive to a prospective partner."
In their research, Winters and study co-author Kunwon Ahn, an associate research fellow at the Korea Labor Institute and graduate of Iowa State's Ph.D. program in economics, examined these shifts to see whether education causes changes in marriage outcomes - and if so, for whom, how and why.
By the numbers
Consider this: Before 1970, more than 80% of Americans, ages 25 to 34, were married. By 2023, that number had fallen to only 38%, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
During this time same period, the percentage of Americans with a college degree increased considerably, and with it, Americans' earning power. Yet, the rising costs of higher education - and by extension, the rising level of college loan debt - may have made marriage less attainable.
"A 2016 study found that the more college debt someone had, the less likely they were to ever get married," Winters says.
In their research, Winters and Ahn applied economic theory and advanced statistics to a 2006-2019 sample from the American Community Survey. The sample included more than 8 million people, which the research duo then divided into cohorts based on birthplace, birth year and self-reported ancestry.
To identify and isolate a potential causal relationship, Winters says it was important to avoid other factors that can influence someone's decisions about marriage and education. Therefore, instead of calculating education attainment based on an individual's own level of schooling, the researchers used a proxy: their mothers' level of education.
"On the individual level, plenty of people finish more or less education than their parents," Winters says, "but within a cohort, the amount of schooling that mothers have, on average, is a strong predictor of how much education children in that cohort received."
The study found that an additional year of schooling - counting from first grade to the end of any postgraduate degrees - reduces the likelihood that someone age 25 to 34 is married by roughly four percentage points.
Among older age groups, however, the effects of education were more mixed.
On average, an individual's level of education has almost zero impact on the probability that someone age 45 to 54 is currently married, Winters says. However, more education does make people slightly more likely to never have been married prior to reaching that age. In the study's sample, about 12% of people in the 45 to 54 age range had never been married, and an additional year of education, on average, increased that number by 2.6 percentage points.
When it comes to marriage outcomes, Winters and Ahn found that more education does reduce the likelihood of divorce or separation for individuals age 45 to 54 who are married. So, while education does appear to reduce the probability that some people will ever marry, it also appears to increase marital stability for those who do marry.
Status: It's complicated
Winters and Ahn's research identified a causal link between education and marriage, but it's nuanced. While previous research has documented that the more education you have, the more likely you are to get married, Winters and Ahn found that correlation ultimately does not imply causality, and plenty of other factors influence marriage and education.
While marriage rates have fallen across the board, the drop is most significant among lower-income groups. And the gap isn't entirely driven by education, say Winters and Ahn. For example, one of other causes may be declining job prospects for lower-income men. In recent decades, as their earning potential has dwindled and women's job options have grown, it appears some of the economic benefits of marriage have declined.
Overall, Winters and Ahn say the following findings of their study emerged across a range of factors:
- Education decreases an individual's likelihood of being married at younger age (25-34), and the longer someone stays in school, the more likely they are to delay getting married.
- Education has almost no effect on the probability of being married at older ages (45-54).
- Education does make some people more likely to never marry - even at older ages - but education also produces more stable marriages with lower rates of divorce and separation.
- Education influences who Americans marry; obtaining a four-year degree vs. just a high school diploma more than doubles someone's likelihood of marrying a fellow college graduate.
Marriage and the bigger picture
Declining marriage rates have important effects on individuals, families and societies.
"Many people value the institution of marriage for its sake, while others assign it importance based on religious, cultural and social values," Winters says. "Economically, marriage has important consequences for children, including how many people children have and the resources that they can invest in those children.
And while education levels are only part of the equation, and other cultural, social, economic and technological factors are likely involved in the overall decline of marriage rates, the exact contribution of these other factors is unknown.
Winters says one idea, though not yet well-researched, looks at the ways smartphones and social media may be reducing psychological and social well-being.
"We stay in more, go out less and are increasingly divided - all of which could make people less likely to marry," Winters says. "The opportunities for future research related to marriage rates will continue to evolve with us."
