According to calculations by researchers at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Europe could meet all of its road transport fuel needs with renewable sources by 2040, and more than half by 2030. The European Union has enough residual and waste materials to supply climate-neutral liquid fuels for all of its road transport needs. For their project, the researchers analyzed the amounts of biogenic raw materials (plant-based residues, wood scraps, or organic waste) available in Europe, how they can be converted by technical means to renewable fuels, and the future fuel requirements of road transport. (DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000191586 )
"Europe has enough renewable resources to be mobile without fossil fuels in the long term," said Professor Thomas Hirth, Vice President Transfer and International Affairs at KIT. "That's good news given the current uncertainties in international energy markets. If we use residual and waste materials efficiently, we can make road traffic less dependent on energy imports while reducing CO₂ emissions."
Diversity of Renewable Raw Materials Makes Europe More Independent
The study, commissioned by BMW AG, was based on a set of conditions for aggressive implementation of the Paris Agreement. It relates to a favorable scenario whose preconditions are still to be established by government and the public. The study shows that especially large amounts of residual and waste materials can be used, e.g. straw from agriculture, wood scraps from forestry, or organic waste. Also available are catch crops (plants that are grown between two main crops) and energy crops that grow on low-yield land and do not compete with food production.
This diversity ensures that the raw material base remains stable and is not dependent on a single material. "Many people think used cooking oil is the main source of renewable fuels, but it actually amounts to around one percent of the raw material portfolio," said Professor Thomas Koch from KIT's Institute of Internal Combustion Engines (IFKM). "The really great potential is in materials like plant residues and wood fiber, which are produced in many processes anyway and can provide sufficiently climate-friendly fuels. But that can only be successful if the production of advanced reFuel biofuels is given the necessary priority by government and the public."
From Residues to Fuels
The researchers investigated several ways to produce useful fuels from biomass, including the HVO (hydrotreated vegetable oil) process, in which oil-bearing residual materials are hydrogenated to produce a diesel substitute, and methanol-based processes. In the latter, a gas is produced from plant residues as an intermediate product that is then processed to produce gasoline or diesel substitutes.
"We can produce high-quality fuels from a wide range of residual materials with these processes," said Professor Nicolaus Dahmen from KIT's Institute of Catalysis Research and Technology. "That's important because Europe has many kinds of biomass. Even if the raw material mix changes, the technologies still work."
While HVO is already available at the pump, fuels from other processes are still in development. They are being produced at KIT and tested in vehicles. Fuel can also be produced in large quantities with the tested processes. The study also shows that yield can be further boosted by adding more hydrogen.
Liquid Fuels to Remain Important Despite Electromobility
According to the IFKM's Dr. Olaf Toedter, there will still be significant demand for liquid fuels in spite of Europe's ambitious electrification plans. "Many vehicles will remain in service for a long time," Toedter said. "Renewable fuels offer a way for this fleet of existing vehicles to directly avoid CO₂ emissions."
What the Study Investigated
The study investigated which renewable raw materials are available in Europe, how they can be converted in various processes to renewable fuels, and what quantities can be produced. It was based on a set of conditions for aggressive implementation of the Paris Agreement. In the study, the researchers focus on a favorable scenario whose preconditions are still to be established by government and the public. The study also considers how vehicle fleets will develop in the years ahead, the fraction of traffic for which renewable fuels can replace conventional ones, and competition from sectors such as industry, energy, aviation, and shipping.
KIT conducted the study in cooperation with the Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum (a biomass research institute), Freyberger engineering GmbH, and BMW AG; the study was commissioned by BMW AG. (mex)
Original publicationToedter, Olaf; Heinz, Alexander; Koch, Thomas; Glaser, Manuel; Dahmen, Nicolaus; Cyffka, Karl-Friedrich; Karras, Tom; Görsch, Kati; Lentjes, Christoph; Wittmann, Jan-Hubert; Rausch, Benjamin; Menger, Lars: From raw material to fossil-free mobility: Europe's potential for a renewable fuel market. KITopen 2026. DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000191586
