GDP Estimate Revisions Pattern Explored

This page contains tables that show how estimates of New Zealand's gross domestic product (GDP) have revised over time. By providing these series, Stats NZ aims to provide users with an accurate and transparent record of these changes.

Download the GDP revisions tables below.

Sources of revisions to GDP estimates

When producing statistics, there is always a trade-off between timeliness and data quality.

GDP provides a quarterly snapshot of the performance of the New Zealand economy. Initial quarterly GDP estimates are compiled using the best data available at the time, include statistics about overseas trade, manufacturing, retail, building activity, business prices, and employment.

Over time, both the quality of available data and the methods used to turn data into statistics improve.

These improvements are based on a range of sources.

A data supplier providing updated data for previous quarters when completing their quarterly survey.
More detailed, complete, and higher quality data being incorporated that was not previously available.
Benchmarking to match more comprehensive annual national accounts data. The annual national account supply use balancing process reconciles transactions across the economy. This means that everything that the economy produces in a year must be used in the form of investment, consumption, net exports, and government expenditure. Incorporating this annual reconciled data into the quarterly GDP series and revising the quarterly GDP series to match the new annual numbers is known as benchmarking.
Improvements to measurement methods.

GDP estimates revise when these improvements are integrated, reflecting more accurate estimates than what was previously published. This is a normal part of the process of producing GDP and ensures that the best available data is published to reflect what is happening in the economy.

Quarterly gross domestic product: Sources and methods (fifth edition) has more information on the reconciliation of quarterly data to annual GDP estimates.

Seasonal adjustment is another source of revision. Seasonal adjustment involves breaking down a series into trend cycle, seasonal, and irregular components. Each new time period added to the series provides an updated understanding of the seasonal component. Therefore, estimates can change without changes to underlying input data.

Seasonal adjustment in Stats NZ has more information on how seasonal adjustment is applied at Stats NZ.

Correction of errors is also a source of revision.

Series provided and further information

The series provided in these tables are:

GDP, production measure, seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 2009/2010 prices: quarterly values and quarterly percentage changes
GDP, production measure, actual chain-volume series expressed in 2009/2010 prices: quarterly values and quarterly percentage changes
GDP, production measure, actual chain-volume series expressed in 2009/2010 prices: annual values and annual percentage changes
GDP, expenditure measure, seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 2009/2010 prices: quarterly values and quarterly percentage changes
GDP, expenditure measure, actual chain-volume series expressed in 2009/2010 prices: quarterly values and quarterly percentage changes
GDP, expenditure measure, actual chain-volume series expressed in 2009/2010 prices: annual values and annual percentage changes.

Like other national statistical offices, the data is presented as a 'revisions triangle'.

Each column contains the estimate initially published for that specific quarter of publication.

Each row contains the time series for a specific quarter from successive publications. Reading across the row shows how revisions have changed the published value over time.

Quarterly series provide changes back to the September 2014 quarter. Annual series provide changes back to the March 2015 year.

National accounts quarterlies - concepts - DataInfo+ provides the definitions of terms used in GDP.

Recent changes and data updates in DataInfo+

The DataInfo+ pages below provide more specific information about the causes of revision in each GDP release.

Enquiries

Economic growth team
[email protected]
04 931 4600

/Stats NZ Public Release. This material from the originating organization/author(s) might be of the point-in-time nature, and edited for clarity, style and length. Mirage.News does not take institutional positions or sides, and all views, positions, and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the author(s).View in full here.

Sources of revisions to GDP estimates

Series provided and further information

Recent changes and data updates in DataInfo+

Enquiries

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