Amsterdam, Netherlands – Greenpeace has urged governments meeting at the UN climate summit COP31 in Antalya next month to take stock of the latest emissions gap data and rapidly scale up action towards a just transition away from fossil fuels to keep 1.5°C alive.
The United Nations Environment Programme warned global warming could reach up to 2.8°C this century if current government policies continue, a worse prediction than last year, but rapid emissions cuts could still limit that to 1.7°C to 1.8°C. It said emissions cuts of 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040 - all based on 2025 levels - were needed for this scenario, in addition to carbon dioxide removals.[1]
In its Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, the UNEP said the roll-out of renewable energy and climate policies had already yielded cuts to emissions, but a massive acceleration was required to limit the extent of an overshoot of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit. It had earlier declared the world would exceed 1.5°C warming, likely in the next few years.[2]
Jasper Inventor, Deputy Programme Director at Greenpeace International said: "This UNEP report is yet another alarm, but governments keep hitting the snooze button. Climate action delayed is climate harm multiplied. The pathway back to 1.5°C is still there in front of us, but only if governments wake up to the reality that the stability of our climate is rapidly slipping away.
"As we come to terms with the prospect of a 1.5°C overshoot, we know that every fraction of a degree still matters and these successive UNEP reports must galvanise political leaders to take the steps needed now and tomorrow to help turn the trajectory around. That means holding fossil fuel polluters to account and standing with the people rather than profiteers."
The UNEP report starkly revealed the shortfall in government policies, outlining that even with the full implementation of climate action plans (NDCs), this would only reduce emissions by 5-8 percent by 2030 and 11-15 per cent by 2035, relative to 2025 levels.
At COP31, Greenpeace is calling on states to reaffirm and accelerate action towards the first Global Stocktake energy goals agreed at COP28 in Dubai in 2023: tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 and accelerating a just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels this critical decade.[3][4]
Notes:
[1] UNEP: Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return
[2] UNEP report: Limiting Overshoot
[3] UNFCCC: Outcome of the first global stocktake
[4] Greenpeace: COP31 Priorities and Expectations
