Projections released by the Albanese Government show Australia's gas consumption is in long-term decline - undermining claims by the Prime Minister that more gas is needed to support the renewable energy transition.
Analysis by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) confirms that Australia's gas use peaked years ago and will continue falling as electrification and renewables rise.
"Gas consumption is projected to decline to 2040 as electrification increases across the economy and renewables and storage take an increasing share of electricity generation," the report said.
Modelling from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) backs this up.
In its 2024 Integrated System Plan, AEMO shows that gas will never again reach past generation peaks and will play only a minor, occasional role in electricity generation in the decades ahead.
Despite this, more than 1,000 new petajoules of gas are scheduled to come online by 2027 - not to support domestic energy needs, but for export.
"Australia is projected to continue exporting significantly more gas than we consume," said Ketan Joshi, Senior Research Associate at The Australia Institute.
"Gas use in Australia has peaked.
"It is pretty simple: Australia does not need to be expanding its fossil gas production, least of all to run fossil gas power stations.
"It's a hollow fossil fuel industry talking point, and the department's own data contradicts it."
