ORANGE, Calif. — Feb. 24, 2026 — A new peer-reviewed study led Dr. Hesham El-Askary, Ph.D., professor of computational and data science at Chapman University, concludes that the saddle dam of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam shows significant vulnerabilities that if breached could threaten downstream communities, property, and infrastructure if urgent monitoring and mitigation steps are not taken.
The study integrates satellite data, hydrological modeling, and advanced geospatial analysis to identify several warning indicators:
- Groundwater seepage: An estimated 41 ± 6.2 billion cubic meters (BCM) of reservoir water seeped into surrounding groundwater during filling, based on GRACE satellite data and hydrological modeling.
- Emerging leakage zones: High-resolution satellite imagery detected new water zones near the saddle dam, suggesting seepage or leakage pathways that warrant immediate structural inspection.
- Dam deformation: Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) revealed up to 40 millimeters of differential settlement, a potential indicator of structural instability.
- Increased seismicity: Statistical modeling identified anomalous seismic activity spatially aligned with pre-existing fault systems, possibly linked to reservoir impoundment.
- Dam-breach simulation: Flood modeling projects potential downstream flood depths of up to 34.7 meters, posing serious risks to communities in Sudan and Egypt, and threatening millions of residents.
"These findings do not predict imminent failure, but they do identify measurable warning signals that require urgent international attention and transparent safety evaluation," said El-Askary. "The potential human and economic consequences of inaction are significant."
By integrating multiple independent data sources, the research provides a comprehensive assessment of structural stability, groundwater dynamics and geohazard risk.
Constructed on Ethiopia's Blue Nile River, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is one of the largest hydroelectric projects in Africa and has long been the focus of regional negotiations and international attention.
The study underscores the importance of enhanced international risk-monitoring frameworks, transparent data sharing, and proactive mitigation strategies to protect downstream populations and infrastructure.
"Our work aims to support science-based decision-making," El-Askary said. "Large-scale infrastructure must be paired with rigorous monitoring systems to safeguard lives, property, and regional stability."
You can read El-Askary's full report in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction by clicking here .
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About Chapman University
Founded in 1861, Chapman University is a nationally ranked private university in Orange, California, about 30 miles south of Los Angeles. Chapman serves nearly 10,000 undergraduate and graduate students, with a 12:1 student-to-faculty ratio. Students can choose from over 100 areas of study within 11 colleges for a personalized education. Chapman is categorized by the Carnegie Classification as an R2 "high research activity" institution. Students at Chapman learn directly from distinguished world-class faculty including Nobel Prize winners, MacArthur fellows, published authors and Academy Award winners. The campus has produced a Rhodes Scholar, been named a top producer of Fulbright Scholars, and hosts a chapter of Phi Beta Kappa, the nation's oldest and most prestigious honor society. Chapman also includes the Harry and Diane Rinker Health Science Campus in Irvine. The university features the No. 4 film school and No. 66 business school in the U.S. Learn more about Chapman University: www.chapman.edu .
