Just over half (51%) of published novelists in the UK believe that artificial intelligence is likely to end up entirely replacing their work as fiction writers, a new University of Cambridge report shows.
Close to two-thirds (59%) of novelists say they know their work has been used to train AI large language models (LLMs) without permission or payment.
Over a third (39%) of novelists say their income has already taken a hit from generative AI, for example due to loss of other work that facilitates novel writing. Most (85%) novelists expect their future income to be driven down by AI.
In new research for Cambridge University's Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy ( MCTD ), Dr Clementine Collett surveyed 258 published novelists earlier this year, as well as 74 industry insiders – from commissioning editors to literary agents – to gauge how AI is viewed and used in the world of British fiction. *
Genre authors are considered the most vulnerable to displacement by AI, according to the report, with two-thirds (66%) of all those surveyed listing romance authors as "extremely threatened", followed closely by writers of thrillers (61%) and crime (60%).
Despite this, overall sentiment in UK fiction is not anti-AI, with 80% of respondents agreeing that AI offers benefits to parts of society. In fact, a third of novelists (33%) use AI in their writing process, mainly for "non-creative" tasks such as information searches.
However, the report outlines profound concerns from the cornerstone of a publishing industry that contributes an annual £11bn to the UK economy, and exports more books than any other country in the world.
Literary creatives feel that copyright laws have not been respected or enforced since the emergence of generative AI. They call for informed consent and fair remuneration for the use of their work, along with transparency from big tech companies, and support in getting it from the UK government.
Many warn of a potential loss of originality in fiction, as well as a fraying of trust between writers and readers if AI use is not disclosed. Some novelists worry that suspicions of AI use could damage their reputation.
"There is widespread concern from novelists that generative AI trained on vast amounts of fiction will undermine the value of writing and compete with human novelists," said Dr Clementine Collett, BRAID UK Research Fellow at Cambridge's MCTD and author of the report, published in partnership with the Institute for the Future of Work.
"Many novelists felt uncertain there will be an appetite for complex, long-form writing in years to come."
"Novels contribute more than we can imagine to our society, culture, and to the lives of individuals. Novels are a core part of the creative industries, and the basis for countless films, television shows, and videogames," said Collett.
"The novel is a precious and vital form of creativity that is worth fighting for."
Tech companies have the fiction market firmly in their sights. Generative AI tools such as Sudowrite and Novelcrafter can be used to brainstorm and edit novels, while Qyx AI Book Creator or Squibler can be used to draft full-length books. Platforms such as Spines use AI to assist with publishing processes from cover designs to distribution.
"The brutal irony is that the generative AI tools affecting novelists are likely trained on millions of pirated novels scraped from shadow libraries without the consent or remuneration of authors," said Collett.
Along with surveying a total of 332 literary creatives, who participated on condition of anonymity, Collett conducted focus groups and interviews around the country, and convened a forum in Cambridge with novelists and publishers. **
Many novelists reported lost income due to AI. Some feel the market is increasingly flooded with AI-generated books, with which they are forced to compete. Others say they have found books under their name on Amazon which they haven't written.
Some novelists also spoke of online reviews with telltale signs of AI, such as jumbled names and characters, that give their books bad ratings and jeopardise future sales.
