- Qatar's economy continues to demonstrate resilience, and preserving its strong policies and buffers are crucial to mitigate risks.
- Following robust growth in 2024, the economic outlook is favorable, accompanied by twin external and fiscal surpluses.
- Continued sound macroeconomic and financial sector policies alongside accelerated structural reforms will further strengthen Qatar's dynamism and cement its resilience.
Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Mr. Nathan Porter, visited Doha during September 8–17, 2025, to discuss recent economic and financial sector developments, the outlook, and the authorities' plans.
At the end of the visit, Mr. Porter issued the following statement:
"Qatar's economy continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by forward-looking policies and large hydrocarbon wealth. The government is actively advancing reforms under its ambitious Third National Development Strategy (NDS3), which focuses on accelerating diversification, enhancing competitiveness, boosting productivity, and promoting climate sustainability. The planned expansion of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production in the North Field will further strengthen Qatar's position as a key global energy supplier and support both fiscal and external balances. Sound macroeconomic management and financial stability, combined with significant financial resources, continue to provide important buffers against shocks. Qatar's sovereign credit spreads remain around their lowest levels in over a decade.
"Preserving these strengths is crucial to protect Qatar's outlook against risks on the horizon. Fluctuations in global energy prices, heightened global uncertainty, and possible disruptions to trade routes pose challenges to Qatar's export earnings, fiscal revenues, and economic activity. Making progress towards Qatar's national development goals while navigating this uncertain environment requires maintaining sound policies and proactive risk management.
"The outlook remains favorable. Growth recovered to 2.4 percent in 2024, driven by faster non-hydrocarbon growth at 3.4 percent. Tourism remained strong, with visitor arrivals rising nearly 30 percent and high hotel occupancy. Robust non-hydrocarbon growth of more than 4 percent is expected in 2025, consistent with sound growth in 2025H1 and strong PMI readings. Overall growth over the medium term is projected to average 4 percent reflecting the North Field expansion, which will significantly increase LNG production, and implementation of NDS3.
"Moderate inflation is expected despite robust economic growth. Headline inflation was 1.3 percent in 2024 and remained negligible in the first half of 2025, reflecting subdued increases in food, housing, and hospitality costs. Core inflation declined steadily from 2½ percent in 2024 to 1.3 percent in the first half of 2025. The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) continues to align its policy rates closely with that of the US Federal Reserve. Base effects are expected to raise inflation above 2.5 percent in 2026 before it stabilizes around 2 percent over the medium term.
"Twin external and fiscal surpluses are expected to continue. The current account remained strong in 2024, posting a surplus exceeding 17 percent of GDP. This outcome reflected robust service sector performance and current transfers, which together offset a worsening trade balance. The surplus remained solid in the first quarter of 2025 at 15.6 percent of GDP and the QCB continues to build foreign reserves (US$55 billion, 8.1 months of imports, in August). The anticipated direct impact of US tariffs is limited due to the exemption of hydrocarbon exports.
"With lower hydrocarbon revenues, the overall fiscal surplus declined to 0.7 percent of GDP in 2024, although the non-hydrocarbon primary balance improved by 2.4 percentage points. Central government debt declined to approximately 40 percent of GDP. The 2025 budget plans for spending levels comparable to 2024. Gradual consolidation over the medium term would support a non-hydrocarbon primary balance consistent with intergenerational equity. Provided fiscal prudence is maintained, twin current account and fiscal surpluses are expected to continue over the medium term.
"Banks continue to demonstrate strong capitalization, liquidity, and profitability. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio declined slightly to 3.6 percent in June, and while there is variability in NPL levels across the system they are well provisioned. Recent stress tests conducted by the QCB suggest that banks maintain adequate buffers to withstand potential shocks. Reliance on external funding remains a vulnerability, which is partially mitigated by a shift in banks' funding structures towards longer-term and more stable domestic sources. Looking ahead, the North Field LNG expansion project and associated economic activity should bolster credit demand over coming years.
"The ongoing implementation of NDS3 is facilitating a transition towards a private sector-led, knowledge-based, more diversified, and environmentally sustainable economy. Significant progress has been made in enhancing the protection and mobility of expatriate workers, attracting skilled talent, and improving the business climate. Policies are being developed to promote Qatarization within the private sector and further foreign direct investment. Progress in digitalization and artificial intelligence continues, supported by digital upskilling and innovation initiatives. The authorities also remain committed to their climate action agenda.
"The mission thanks the authorities for their hospitality, constructive discussions, and the arrangements to facilitate our visit. The IMF team met with H.E. Minister of Finance Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari, H.E. QCB Governor Sheikh Bandar bin Mohammed bin Saud Al Thani, other senior government officials, and private sector representatives. We look forward to continuing the dialogue ahead of the Article IV Consultation, which we expect to be early in the first quarter of 2026."
