Keynote speech from Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann focused on how data from King's Business School led Decision Maker Panel survey is helping to inform policy decision-making.
King's Business School and the Bank of England brought together experts from academia, policymaking and industry for a full-day programme showcasing new research on how UK businesses are navigating a period of heightened economic uncertainty.
A central focus of the event was the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)-funded Decision Maker Panel, which was founded by Professor Paul Mizen, Bank of England and Stanford University. This monthly online survey is providing increasingly detailed insight into firms' expectations, investment plans and pricing behaviour.
In her keynote address, Catherine Mann, member of the Monetary Policy Committee, explained how evidence from the Decision Maker Panel helps identify early signs of inflation pressure. She noted that a growing number of firms expecting larger price rises in 2022 indicated rising risk, shaping her view that interest rates needed to increase earlier and by more than many anticipated. She added that firms' current pricing intentions still point to upside inflation risks, a point reflected in Bloomberg's reporting on the event.
Across the day, contributors examined how companies react to energy shocks, how expectations shape investment choices, the role of AI in identifying financial constraints and what real-time entry data reveals about business dynamism. Sessions on firm-level pricing and Brexit-related uncertainty highlighted the range of analytical tools now available to researchers and central bank teams. A closing panel with the Low Pay Commission, Nomura, Pantheon and the Institute of Directors also discussed the use Decision Maker Panel (DMP) data, reflecting its growing value as a UK public data asset.
The conference concluded with reflections from Stian Westlake, Executive Chair, ESRC, who emphasised the importance of sustained investment in high-quality business data for both research and policymaking.
High-quality business data is essential for understanding how firms are responding to a changing economic landscape. It was encouraging to see how far the Decision Maker Panel has become a vital resource for researchers and policymakers alike, and hearing exactly how it is being used will help us to develop it further.
Professor Paul Mizen, Vice Dean, Research at King's Business School and co-founder of the Decision Maker Panel survey
When I look at the Decision Maker Panel, I focus on the full range of responses firms give about future price and wage increases. The spread of those expectations, rather than just the average, gives me early insight into the pressures building in the economy. Those distributions have been an essential part of how I assess inflation risks and understand the uncertainty firms are facing.
Catherine L Mann, member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England
