With only five years until the 2030 deadline for achieving the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a new international study reveals uneven progress in achieving the goals since their adoption in 2015.
The paper, recently published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), reveals that global progress on numerous SDGs with high initial benchmarks has either stalled or gone into reverse. In contrast, SDG indicators with lower baseline performance continue to register gains. Researchers caution that the vast majority of countries will fail to meet their 2030 SDG targets under current trends.
The study highlights a contrast in global SDG performance. Indicators tied to Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure (SDG 9) rank the highest globally. In contrast, Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3)-despite relatively high initial scores-has suffered the most severe setbacks, with declines in vaccine coverage and slowed or reversed progress in infectious disease control, even in developed economies.
"The data reveal a striking paradox. While industrial modernization and scientific research have advanced the SDGs, the foundations of global health are cracking under strain," noted Dr. XING Qiang, lead author of the study and associate professor at the Aerospace Information Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (AIRCAS). "This 'Great Divide' demonstrates that technological progress (SDG 9) alone cannot offset the systemic neglect of public health infrastructure and immunization systems (SDG 3)-especially as the 2030 deadline approaches."
The study shows that SDG indicators with low baseline scores in 2015 have, on average, made substantial progress. "For instance, Sierra Leone has emerged as a global leader in improving female literacy and road safety, proving that rapid transformation is possible even in resource-constrained settings," said co-author Dr. Prajal Pradhan, an assistant professorat the University of Groningen, also a CAS President's International Fellowship Initiative (PIFI) fellow.
Conversely, the study finds that SDG indicators with high 2015 scores (i.e., 70-90%) are now more likely to stagnate or regress than advance. Factors driving this trend include inadequate domestic implementation of SDG initiatives in high-income countries, the COVID-19 pandemic, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
These regressive trends reflect challenges in the final phase of SDG implementation and signal a potential gap in global sustainability leadership. For example, Croatia has seen significant declines in vaccine coverage and rule-of-law indicators, while Portugal faces growing bottlenecks in environmental nitrogen management.
"By 2030, the global SDG score is projected to reach approximately 63%, with several countries-including Afghanistan, Somalia, and Syria-remaining below 50%," said corresponding author Prof. WU Chaoyangat the CAS Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research.
New Zealand and Denmark continue to set global benchmarks, leading in Gender Equality (SDG 5) and Global Partnerships (SDG 17), respectively. They serve as a North Star for systemic equity and public-private collaboration, the study shows.
"Our analysis systematically identifies cross-country differences in progress made and remaining gaps toward sustainable development from pre-2015 to 2030. There is an urgent need to strengthen international collaboration, funding, and aid to accelerate SDG implementation now and beyond," said Prof. CHEN Fang at the AIRCAS, co-author of the study.
While fully achieving all SDGs in the remaining five years will be challenging, the researchers stress that every bit of progress counts. The SDGs remain the central global framework for advancing a sustainable and equitable future.
