A new study led by Prof. CHEN Yaning from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences demonstrates that low-carbon development pathway can significantly improve and stabilize the synergistic benefits of wind and solar energy in China.
Published in Applied Energy, the study provides valuable insights into how decarbonization efforts influence renewable energy resources.
Using reanalyzed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections, the researchers assessed mid-21st-century changes in wind power, solar photovoltaic potential, and their combined synergy under two carbon-neutral scenarios-Moderate and Stringent-compared to the baseline SSP2-4.5 pathway. They highlighted the critical roles of global decarbonization and key meteorological factors in shaping future renewable energy prospects.
Their findings indicate that low-carbon scenarios help mitigate long-term declines in wind resources, especially in Eastern and Central China. At the same time, although solar potential is projected to shift southeastward, its growth remains more stable and persistent under carbon-neutral pathways. The variations in wind power are mainly driven by changes in the frequency of cut-in wind speeds (below 3 m/s) and ramp-up wind speeds (between 3-11 m/s).
For solar potential, fluctuations are primarily influenced by downward shortwave radiation, with minimal effects from wind variables.
Moreover, the study underscores that low-carbon policies significantly enhance the temporal stability of wind and solar resources, making renewable energy supplies more dependable.
"Our study shows that low-carbon development not only elevates the potential of wind and solar power individually but also amplifies their combined benefits across China," said LONG Yunxia, first author of the study.
This work provides scientific guidance for renewable energy planning aligned with China's carbon neutrality targets and offers a valuable Chinese perspective to the global energy transition.
